ANSWER: Not very good. Far less than 1 percent chance. Right now, in late 2024, there are about 100,000 centenarians in the U.S. It's estimated the number will increase to 400,000 by 2050. Even with that 400,000 number, it's only one-tenth of 1 percent. (0.1%)
In spite of advances in health care and living conditions, the growth of life expectancy is slowing across all higher-income countries. The slowdown is in marked contrast to what was happening all during the 1900s. During those 100 years, life expectancy grew by three years per decade. Much of the increase can be attributed to conquering deadly diseases via vaccination.
Based on trends, the average life expectancy at birth may never exceed 84 for men and 90 for women. That's in spite of better nutrition and medical care. That suggests to researchers that there is a biological limit to how old we can get.
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The countries that have the most people over age 100 are Japan, United States, China, India and Thailand. In the U.S., 78 percent of centenarians are women and 22 percent are men. In the U.S., there are three 100-year-olds for every 10,000 people.
The U.S. population is trending to older because life expectancies increase and the birth rate decreasing. Many factors are involved, including genetics, health care, diet and social support.
We should be thankful that we are alive today. If we go back to the time of Jesus Christ, life expectancy at age 15 would be 37 to 41 years. Most Greeks and Romans died young. About half of all children died before adolescence. Those who survived to the age of 30 had a reasonable chance of reaching 50 or 60. The truly elderly, however, were rare. Even in the Middle Ages, around 1500 AD, life expectancy was only 30 to 35 years.
In the news, we often hear about the oldest person who just died and their secrets for a long life. A few days ago, Nov. 25, the world's oldest man, Englishman John Tinniswood, died at age 112. In 1912, the suffragettes were vandalizing post boxes to win women the right to vote and the Titanic set sail for America.
Tinniswood had three pieces of life advice for younger people: Have a broad outlook, do everything in moderation, and always try your best. Tinniswood said living so long was simply "pure luck." Other "longest living" in the past includes people who reached the ages of 122, 117 and 116.
How does this aging process work? There is a slew of theories on how and why we age. As cells wear out, they make copies of themselves by dividing and the new cells take the place of the worn-out cells. This only happens about 50 times for each cell. Why the 50 times limit? That's the part of aging that is not fully understood by the scientific community and medical profession.
It could be because the DNA in each cell doesn't copy perfectly, and over time a part of the DNA sequence is compromised. Another suggestion put forth is the "free radicals" idea. Little pieces of chemicals react with elements in a cell and cause damage. Also, many cells that die do not get replaced. Organs get overworked at doing their job of keeping us alive. The system gets so out of whack that otherwise healthy people develop heart or kidney or liver diseases.
Many scientists believe that the slowing down of cell division by aging is really a good thing. It reduces the chances of cancer. After all, cancer is runaway cell division. This may seem contradictory because we know so many people dying of cancer. But the average cancer patient today is well over 50.
In the meantime, rising life expectancy in the West brings both good and bad news: it's nice to be living longer, but we are now more vulnerable to the types of illnesses that hit as we get older. These age-related diseases include coronary artery disease, certain cancers, diabetes, and dementia.
It is no secret that the quantity and quality of life can be improved by healthy lifestyle choices like following a balanced diet, maintaining a healthy weight, exercising regularly, getting proper amounts of sleep, and keeping stress at bay.
Sources: WebMD, Scientific American, NIH.
Larry Scheckel taught science at Tomah High School for 38 years and was named Tomah Teacher of the Year three times. Send comments and questions to lscheckel@charter.net.
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