The Chicago Bulls' faltering home record looks a lot like the Charlotte Hornets' rough road mark, so be ready for anything as these teams collide tonight at United Center.
Charlotte snapped an ugly eight-game skid last time out, but my Hornets vs Bulls predictions favor a Chicago team with a bigger scoring punch.
My analysis
There's been a familiar sinking feeling for the Charlotte Hornets lately, with LaMelo Ball sidelined and losses piling up -- and injuries for Grant Williams and Tre Mann have taken a toll, too.
That spells trouble heading into a matchup against a high-powered Chicago Bulls offense.
The Bulls have owned this matchup in recent years, winning the last six meetings and covering the spread in each, and I'm laying the points with the hosts without hesitation.
Sure, just as Charlotte is sweating on the availability of Miles Bridges and Moussa Diabate, Chicago has Nikola Vucevic, Patrick Williams and Josh Giddey listed as questionable. But there's a decent chance two of the trio play, and I'm buying into a Chicago offense fifth in the NBA in points per game.
In fact, the hosts have scored at least 119 points in eight of their last 10 games, and they've gone past the 125-point mark six times in that span.
The Bulls also trail only the Boston Celtics in 3-point makes and attempts per game, and the differential from beyond the arc could be the No. 1 swing factor tonight.
I just don't see this Hornets team keeping pace if we get into a shootout. Charlotte is only averaging 107.1 points per game -- just three teams are scoring fewer points this year -- and attempts a league-worst 18.5 free throws per outing.
This feels like a friendly spot for the Bulls to turn around their troubling 3-9 home record, given the Hornets are 9-26 across their past 35 road games and sit at 7-17 overall this season.
Hanging onto the final play-in spot, Chicago has dropped its last two contests, but I expect the hosts to steady the ship here.
Zach LaVine's ceiling as a scorer is up there with the best players in the league, and we've seen that version in his last two outings -- including a 30-point effort against the 76ers last weekend.
Though he's been dealing with back spasms, I see LaVine serving up another dominant points total here. With his 50% mark from the field this season, including an impressive 43% from downtown, this 22.5 O/U feels low against a reeling Charlotte team.
With LaMelo and Mann in street clothes, it's "next man up" for the Hornets. As a result, Vasilije Micic has seen a spike in minutes as the starting point guard -- and the results have been eye-catching.
He's posted 28 assists across his last three games in a bigger role. The Bulls are no one's idea of a defensive juggernaut, so that paves the way for a crafty creator like Micic to rack up dimes and build off a nice connection with Brandon Miller.