Baltimore Orioles fans are already bracing themselves for the news they dreaded all season--Corbin Burnes signing with another franchise.
Burnes was everything the Orioles could have asked for in his lone year in Baltimore. He anchored a starting rotation that otherwise couldn't stay healthy, dragging them to the playoffs and pitching brilliantly in the Wild Card round despite taking the loss.
This winter, Burnes is expected to become a top-five highest-paid pitcher in Major League Baseball history. Even under new ownership, most don't forecast the Orioles having the budget to keep the four-time All-Star in town.
If and when Burnes leaves, though, the Orioles can't sit still and hang their heads while his spot in the rotation remains open. And the next best thing, of the remaining free-agent starters, may well be the 2024 New York Mets' surprise ace Sean Manaea.
On Friday, Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report predicted that Manaea would sign with the Orioles on a four-year, $76 million contract, helping to fill the void Burnes will leave behind at a fraction of the potential cost to bring their old ace back.
"After two years of struggling in the NL West despite home games coming at two of the most pitcher-friendly venues in the majors, Sean Manaea was a completely different force with the Mets in 2024," Miller said.
"Giving Corbin Burnes more than $200M probably isn't in the cards for Baltimore, but this type of deal to pair Manaea with Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez atop the rotation could absolutely work for the O's."
Manaea pitched to a 3.47 ERA in 32 starts this season, which is good on its own, but his year really took off when he dropped his arm slot in late June to mimic Cy Young winner Chris Sale. His ERA stayed roughly the same, but his strikeout rate skyrocketed, suggesting the late-career breakout may only continue.
Obviously, Manaea isn't Burnes. But if the rest of Baltimore's rotation can stay healthy and produce better than they did in 2024, they may be able to recreate him in the aggregate, if you'll pardon the Moneyball reference.