Ministers may be forced to make changes to the triple lock policy amid rising levels of unemployment. The unemployment rate rose to 5 percent in the latest figures, for the three months to September. ONS figures suggest the number of payrolled employees in September 2025 fell by 117,000 compared to a year ago.
A drop in the number of workers paying their taxes can affect Government revenues, which may force changes to its other fiscal commitments such as the triple lock. The triple lock guarantees state pension payments increase in line with whichever is highest: 2.5 percent, the rise in average earnings or inflation.
The policy has delivered sizeable increases in recent years, including a record 10.1 percent in April 2023, amid high levels of inflation. But the ramping costs of the state pension raise the question of how long the triple lock will be affordable.
Mark Richdon, tax director at accountancy firm Bishop Fleming, said: "Higher unemployment would reduce National Insurance and income tax receipts, tightening the Treasury's fiscal position just as pension and benefit costs continue to rise.