I didn't have the A's signing a free-agent starter to the biggest contract in franchise history on my bingo card for this offseason, given the low payrolls they've run under The Owner Who Must Not Be Named and the fact that they're going to be playing in a minor-league stadium under a broiler for the next few summers, at least. They did just that, however, signing right-hander Luis Severino to a two-year deal with a player option for the third year, guaranteeing him $67 million in total if he stays for the full term.
Severino hit free agency for the second time in his career this winter, and unlike his previous trip the year before, he's coming off one of the best years of his career -- and a rare healthy year to boot. He returned from multiple arm injuries, including Tommy John surgery, to throw the most innings he'd pitched in one season since 2018, and was one of several reclamation projects who joined the Mets and saw real improvement last season.
His velocity isn't quite what it was, but by adding a sinker, he at least could limit hitters from sitting on the straighter four-seamer. His slider is still plus, but not quite as sharp as it was in his peak with the Yankees, so he's added a sweeper as well, giving him six distinct pitches by Statcast's categorization. Along with above-average control, those pitches helped him to a 1.6 bWAR/2.1 fWAR season for the Mets, with a 3.91 ERA and 4.21 FIP in 182 innings.
There are two sizable risk factors in signing Severino. One is that he has enough trouble with left-handed batters to be a liability against lefty-heavy lineups. He gave up a .269/.334/.440 line to them last year, allowing 16 homers to lefties (versus seven to righties, in almost equal playing time).
His approach against lefties is to attack them with four-seamers, which, well, it's just not working, so maybe it's time for something else? He threw the four-seamer 47 percent of the time when facing left-handed batters, compared to just 24 percent of the time to righties, and used his cutter and changeup -- two pitches that are often used to combat hitters on the opposite side of the plate -- just 19 percent of the time combined against lefties. That's not to say the solution is just to throw more of those and less of the four-seamer, but we at least have some data to argue that throwing four-seamers to lefties all day long is not the optimal strategy.
The other risk factor is his durability, or lack thereof. When Severino was a touted prospect in the Yankees system, I voiced concerns that his arm-heavy delivery would lead to injuries, and he did get hurt, a lot. Severino threw 18 innings in total from 2019-21, and then threw 102 and 89 1/3 innings in the next two years, neither of which is what you expect or need from a member of your rotation.
With his slightly reduced effectiveness, he needs to rack up innings to be a $22 million AAV pitcher; he's not a two-win guy at his current ERA/FIP level unless he's getting 180 innings. And there's a good chance he throws 180 innings total in any two years of this deal, just given his history.
That said, good for the A's for spending some real money to make the team better -- and Severino does make the team better. Before adding Severino, they did not have a starter on their roster who posted an ERA below 4.00 last year, despite Oakland Coliseum playing as a strong pitcher's park, and they had only one pitcher, the one and only J.P. Sears, who qualified for the ERA title.
If Severino just repeats what he did this past year, with zero improvement in any way, he's still the A's best starter and gives them some bulk innings they need. Their rotation right now is Severino, Sears, Mitch Spence (who led Oakland starters with a 4.21 FIP), and Joey Estes (0.7 bWAR), with a few candidates for the fifth spot. Those include ground baller J.T. Ginn and lefty Hogan Harris, who was OK as a starter last year before being sent down to Triple A in late July and returning to the big leagues in late August as a reliever.
That's a long way of saying they should go add another starter, even if it's just someone to provide some innings and maybe become a trade piece in July. They don't have any prospects likely to spend significant time in the major-league rotation in 2025 -- I could see Jack Perkins or Mason Barnett getting a call-up in the second half -- so they should go find more innings somewhere.
Even with the risk involved, I'm just glad to see the A's trying to field a better team, especially with the challenges they're going to face in Sacramento. They're not going to contend for a playoff spot, but they could probably get close to a .500 record, and that's a much better product than they've fielded in the last three seasons.