Tropical Storm Fengshen (Storm No. 12), with wind speeds reaching levels 9-10, is beginning to shift southwest toward the area between Da Nang and Quang Ngai. Prolonged heavy rainfall is expected across provinces from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai, with some areas forecast to receive up to 900mm, accompanied by the risk of flooding above level 3 alert.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, within the next 24 hours, Storm No. 12 (Fengshen) is expected to gradually weaken, slow down, and shift direction toward the southwest. Over the following 48 hours, it is likely to downgrade into a tropical depression.
As of 7:00 AM on October 21, the storm's center was approximately 130 km north of the Hoang Sa Archipelago, with maximum sustained winds near the center reaching level 9-10 (75-102 km/h) and gusts at level 12. The storm is moving westward at about 20 km/h.
Within the next 24 hours, the storm will shift west-southwest at a reduced speed of 10-15 km/h. By 7:00 AM on October 22, it is expected to be located in the western waters of the Hoang Sa Archipelago, about 220 km northeast of Da Nang, still at level 9 intensity with gusts reaching level 11.
In the following 24 hours, the storm is projected to continue southwest at around 10 km/h and weaken into a tropical depression by 7:00 AM on October 23, reaching the mainland between Da Nang and Quang Ngai. It is then expected to further weaken into a low-pressure system over southern Laos.
Due to the storm's influence, the northern area of the East Sea, including the Hoang Sa Archipelago, will experience strong winds of level 7-8, with areas near the storm's center reaching levels 9-10 and gusts up to level 12. Wave heights will range from 3-5 meters, and 5-7 meters near the storm's eye, resulting in extremely rough seas.
In the waters from southern Quang Tri to Quang Ngai, including Ly Son Island, winds will reach level 6, increasing to level 7 by the morning of October 22. Areas near the storm's center may experience level 8 winds with gusts up to level 10, and waves reaching 3-5 meters, causing strong sea turbulence.
All vessels operating in the affected sea zones are at risk of thunderstorms, whirlwinds, strong winds, and high waves.
On land, the combination of the storm's circulation, incoming cold air, and easterly wind disturbances, along with terrain effects, will likely cause widespread heavy rainfall from the night of October 22 to October 26 across the region from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai.
Total expected rainfall is 200-400mm in areas from Ha Tinh to northern Quang Tri and Quang Ngai, with localized totals exceeding 500mm. From southern Quang Tri to Da Nang, rainfall may reach 500-700mm, with some places experiencing over 900mm. Authorities also warn of intense rain exceeding 200mm within 3 hours. Rainfall in central Vietnam may persist through the end of October 2025.
There is a high risk of flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas, as well as flooding in low-lying and urban regions.
Meteorological agencies urge local governments to manage hydropower and irrigation reservoirs safely before, during, and after the storm. Preparedness plans should account for the possibility of rivers from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai reaching or exceeding level 3 flood alerts.
The predicted disaster risk level from floods and inundation is rated level 3.