How Trump and China's rare earth war will hit the West's pockets


How Trump and China's rare earth war will hit the West's pockets

Donald Trump's tit-for-tat trade war with China over rare earth minerals could send prices for electric vehicles (EVs) and consumer electronics soaring.

On Friday, the US president announced a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese imports to America in retaliation for the communist country's announcement of export controls on rare earths.

China produces more than 90 per cent of the world's supply of processed rare earths, which are crucial in the manufacture of hi-tech items, from radars and jet engines to televisions, solar panels, EVs and bullets.

Rare earths are a set of 17 minerals, which comprise 15 silvery-white metals called lanthanides plus the elements scandium and yttrium.

While tariffs are paid upfront by manufacturers and importers, those inflated costs are inevitably passed down to ordinary buyers.

Tanya Sinclair, chief executive of trade group Electric Vehicles UK, warned that tariffs and trade controls from both sides would inevitably send EV prices soaring.

"It's not just Chinese car brands that would be hit by sudden tariff or policy changes," she told The Telegraph.

"Tariffs push up costs at every stage. At best, that means higher prices for cars, parts, and servicing; at worst, it risks removing products from the market altogether. Every vehicle on the road, of every brand and badge, depends on Chinese components somewhere in its supply chain.

"The same is true for chargers, cables, and other essential kit that keeps drivers moving," Ms Sinclair continued, adding: "What drivers need most is confidence, and that confidence depends on clear, consistent policy and price stability."

Despite Trump's retaliatory tariffs kicking in on Nov 1 - allowing time for negotiations - fears of potential price rises are already being felt.

China's commerce ministry tried to smooth the situation with a statement on its rare earths policy on Sunday.

"Any export applications for civilian use that comply with regulations will be approved, and relevant enterprises need not worry."

Experts, however, were not immediately reassured. Dr Andy Palmer, a former chief executive of Aston Martin who now runs consulting firm Palmer Energy Technology, said: "Tariffs are a blunt instrument; they punish consumers and fuel inflation. In a trade war between the US and China, nobody wins.

"A conflict over rare earths would be even more damaging, driving up car prices across the board," he added. "With China dominating refining, any export restriction simply deepens overcapacity there and worsens shortages elsewhere."

Aside from EVs, rare earths are used extensively in the making of smartphones and similar hi-tech consumer electronics.

Both Trump and China's announcements came immediately before the US Nasdaq stock market lost $770bn (£577bn) of value in one day, suggesting that investors in the likes of Apple and Nvidia - two firms whose hi-tech consumer gadgets depend on a steady supply of rare earths - are now fearful of soaring costs amid raw material price increases.

Components such as the iPhone's loudspeaker, microphone, camera, and the "haptic" engine that vibrates the handset are all made using rare earths including neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium.

Thomas Graedel, a professor of chemical engineering at Yale, previously told The Telegraph. "All cellphone makers use [rare earths], there are no suitable substitutes."

America imposing 100 per cent import tariffs on these items is likely to lead to prices for complete handsets increasing if Mr Trump's threat goes into force as planned next month.

Similarly, the minerals yttrium and europium, which are used to manufacture television and computer screens, are items likely to see corresponding price rises if a full-blown trade war gets under way.

Rob Anstey, chief executive of GDI, a company that makes silicon components for industrial-grade batteries, said the Chinese rare earths controls could potentially affect the "entire West", bringing Britain into the firing line as well as the US.

"I have been saying for a while that China doesn't want to supply raw materials, nor even cells. They want the full value chain. They want to sell cars, drones, and robotics," he said.

"This isn't simply a reaction to a US trade war. The new export controls appear aimed at the entire West."

Calling for a wholesale change in Western countries' industrial policy, he added: "What's at stake isn't just the battery industry - it's the entire mobility, robotics, consumer electronics, and next-generation device sectors."

For now, consumers' rare earth-dependent gadgets are in something of a Phoney War situation. Something bad is coming; everyone knows it is coming; but the precise effects will take time to make themselves felt.

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