'Prevention is better than cure' and 'History repeats itself' are cliches that capture the painful reality of our country.Floods in Pakistan precipitate scarcity and poverty....
'Prevention is better than cure' and 'History repeats itself' are cliches that capture the painful reality of our country.
Floods in Pakistan precipitate scarcity and poverty. Pakistan is an agricultural economy, with over 37 per cent of its workforce employed in agriculture and the sector contributing roughly 23 per cent to GDP. However, this backbone is repeatedly injured by climate disasters: floods that destroy crops, displace farming communities and trigger waves of food inflation. Floods are often seen as natural calamities but the question worth asking is if they are truly nature's wrath or a result of our own failures in planning, prevention, and governance?
In July 2010 the Indus River overflowed after intense monsoon rain. This resulted in floods that affected approximately 20 million people with 5.4 million acres crops lost and 1.2 million livestock killed, 1200 to 2200 people were killed and many roads, schools and clinics got destroyed resulting in approximately $43 billion of economic losses. This was repeated in 2022, when heavy monsoon rains flooded the Indus again. Climate change at that time made the situation worse, with melting mountain glaciers adding more to the flow. The damage was devastating; 33 million people were affected, and nearly one third of the country submerged. The death toll touched 1700 people, and over two million homes were damaged. We suffered economic losses exceeding $30 billion.
This year, heavy pre monsoon rainfall triggered flash floods across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and Azad Kashmir, especially devastating areas such as Swat Valley. With unprecedent flooding, especially across the Indian controlled rivers, there were 800 fatalities and even more injured and missing. In August, KP suffered catastrophic flash floods and landslides with 210 deaths in Buner district alone while Punjab faced its worst floods since 1988 with many villages submerged and over two million people displaced.
The response however, shows signs of gradual improvement in successive flood responses. In 2010, the government was widely criticised for being sluggish and disorganised, rescue efforts were led primarily by the armed forces while humanitarian aid came from both domestic and foreign donors. Yet hundreds and thousands of survivors were left in camps for months, suffering from poor sanitation and inadequate supplies.
In contrast, in 2022 government officials declared a nationwide state of emergency as flooding peaked and established the National Flood Response and Coordination Centre (NFRCC) set up to coordinate federal, provincial and military efforts. Government rolled out Rs170 billion relief package through the Benazir Income Support Programme and announced a Kissan Package for farmers.
Still, nearly 10 million people faced food insecurity and six months later almost two million people remained living near contaminated standing water. In flood-affected areas, where food insecurity was already high, malnutrition worsened, especially among children, leaving survivors increasingly vulnerable to waterborne diseases such as cholera, malaria and dengue. Internationally, Pakistan received a more sympathetic response in 2022 with the global scientific community framing the disaster as the price Pakistan was paying for a climate crisis to which it had contributed negligibly.
In 2025, the response has been quicker and more coordinated than in previous floods. Rescue operations evacuated hundreds of thousands and authorities even carried out controlled breaches of flood barriers to protect major cities. Nevertheless, the overall approach to the calamity remains reactive. Pakistan has become better at responding once the waters rise, but it still fails to act on time when the danger is already visible.
Floods may have inevitable drivers, such as climate change and global warming, but that alone does not absolve us of civic responsibility. Are we truly doing our part to mitigate floods to the best of our abilities and to manage them proactively? Perhaps not. During the current floods, the weather forecasts were available, yet neither the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) nor the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) acted promptly to issue warnings or initiate protective measures for vulnerable communities. Flood-prone areas should have been evacuated in advance, which could have saved many lives such as the family at Swat River, stranded on a rocky island for hours before being swept away.
Pakistan is not without flood defences; there are dams and barrages to hold water, embankments to contain it, drainage systems to carry it away and early warning systems operating through the NDMA and PDMAs but most of these are often silted, fragile, clogged or too late to matter. If we will not shift our priorities by investing and maintaining robust defense systems, we will keep on losing in terms of wealth as well as health.
Following the floods in 2010, Pakistan's GDP growth fell sharply. Agriculture, which then made up 21 per cent of GDP, was the hardest hit. The pre-flood growth target of 4.0 per cent collapsed to just 2.6 per cent. Government spending surged on relief and rehabilitation whereas revenues shrank as export duties on crops and corporate taxes from agro-based industries like textiles fell, further widening the budget deficit.
To fill the gap, the World Bank and Asian Development Bank had to extend emergency loans, adding further strain on Pakistan's external debt. According to the ILO, the floods had cost more than 10 million jobs. Yet the paradox was striking: large textile exporters were relatively safe, some even profited as global cotton prices soared by around 154 per cent. As cotton anchors over half of Pakistan's exports through textiles, the surge in export value kept the Pakistani rupee relatively steady, depreciating only by 1.8 per cent - a stark contrast to the near 40 per cent experienced in 2023.
With access to leftover stock, imports, and large domestic holdings, these industrialists could ride the price boom therefore, the trade deficit in 2011 narrowed slightly despite increase in imports that rose to cover flood related shortfall. The ones to suffer were small local farmers and many lost their crops and livestock entirely, while those who managed to harvest were faced with high transport costs as broken infrastructure cut them off from markets. In 2023, post the 2022 floods, Pakistan's GDP growth was close to zero against a target of around 3.0 per cent. The rupee depreciated by almost 40 per cent against the U.S dollar as exports shrank and imports became costlier.
In 2011, a surge in global cotton prices had cushioned the blow, but in 2023 no such lifeline existed, leaving the currency severely exposed. By early 2023, State Bank reserves had fallen to just $3 billion, enough for only a few weeks of imports. Pakistan was already under an IMF Extended Fund Facility program, yet disbursements were held and other lenders were discouraged from lending support. Despite the differences in figures between the two post flood situations, the underlying economic pattern remains repetitive. Floods ruin resources and exports; imports are pressured as a result the economy weakens and reliance on foreign lenders such as the IMF deepens. These factors entrench us in poverty further.
The 2025 floods have once again left the post-flood situation uncertain and disturbing. Pakistan, under a new IMF Extended Fund Facility is being closely monitored with the second review scheduled for September 15, 2025, before the release of around $1.04 billion. Pakistan's post-flood recovery is no longer in its own hands, it depends on IMF approval, timeline, and conditions. The same patterns threaten to recur: greater imports, a weakening rupee, drained reserves and rising debt.
Prevention is better than cure, yet Pakistan insists on learning the hard way. Until that changes, history will keep repeating itself.