RENTON, Wash. -- As the Seattle Seahawks prepare to host one of the best defenses in football in Week 16, they are "optimistic" quarterback Geno Smith will be able to play.
Smith suffered a knee injury midway through the third quarter of Seattle's 30-13 loss to the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night. Coach Mike Macdonald said the Seahawks received "positive" results from the tests on Smith's knee and they're hopeful he will practice this week ahead of a pivotal game against the Minnesota Vikings. Seattle (8-6) fell to the eighth spot in the NFC and second in the NFC West behind the Los Angeles Rams (8-6) via the head-to-head tiebreaker with Sunday's loss.
Smith's ability to practice this week might determine the team's fate this season.
"I'm optimistic he'll get most of the (practice) snaps," Macdonald said Monday.
If Smith cannot play against the Vikings, backup quarterback Sam Howell would make his first start as a Seahawk. Howell relieved Smith on Sunday and played 24 snaps across seven series. He completed 5 of 14 passes for 24 yards with an interception in the fourth quarter. He was sacked four times in 19 dropbacks and had a 2-yard scramble.
"I was hoping he'd play better, frankly, just to get us back in the game, move the ball a little bit more," Macdonald said. "But he was put in a tough spot where they know that we're throwing and we know we're throwing, so they're rocking and rolling doing their stuff. Talking to Sam, he's mentally tough as nails. I know he's physically tough as nails, so if he gets the opportunity again, he's going to go do what he does and be Sam Howell, be the guy we love."
Whether Smith or Howell starts against Minnesota, Seattle's top priority this week should be finding ways to make life easier for its quarterback.
As currently constructed, the Seahawks' offense places a heavy burden on the quarterback due to the play calling and a lack of execution. This has been the case most of the season, but it became even more evident when Howell took over and couldn't adequately run the offense.
Meanwhile, the opposing quarterback spent most of the night handing the ball off and making low-degree-of-difficulty throws when it was time to pass. Jordan Love completed 20 of 29 passes for 229 yards and two touchdowns for the Packers. He dropped back 28 times and wasn't sacked (though he was hit seven times). Seattle didn't register a pass breakup until cornerback Riq Woolen disrupted a deep ball intended for receiver Christian Watson on Love's final pass with two minutes to play.
Time and score will always influence an offense's run-pass splits. The Seahawks spent most of the game down by multiple scores, which is part of the reason Smith dropped back 23 times while Zach Charbonnet and Kenny McIntosh combined for just 11 carries. But Seattle ranks fifth in early down pass rate in neutral situations, according to RBSDM.com, which charts designed dropbacks when the score is within reach for both teams, excluding the final two minutes of each half.
A dropback-heavy offense is not inherently bad. For example, the two quarterbacks with more dropbacks than Smith are Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes, and they're both leading top-10 offenses by points per drive and EPA per play (all stats provided by TruMedia). But Seattle's offense ranks 21st and 20th in those categories. One reason for that is how much burden is on Smith to operate in pure-passing situations without much play action or misdirection. That also makes life hard on an offensive line that once again struggled to protect the quarterback Sunday.
Smith ranks in the top five in pressure rate and was sacked three times by Green Bay. Linebacker Edgerrin Cooper got by left guard Laken Tomlinson on third-and-4 to end the opening series, defensive end Rashan Gary beat right tackle Abraham Lucas for a sack on third-and-2 in the second quarter and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt beat rookie right guard Sataoa Laumea with a spin move in the third quarter.
"They married their rush and coverage really well in passing situations," Macdonald said. "We can do a better job on offense at getting the ball out quicker and picking up some of the stunts that they're running and then trying to pry open some of those throw lanes. But they did a good job of marrying it up, and there weren't a lot of places to go with the ball."
The easiest way to alleviate pressure on the quarterback is to run the ball, which Seattle didn't do much Sunday. Charbonnet had eight carries for 54 yards. Three of his carries produced first downs, including his 24-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. McIntosh had just three carries for 9 yards. On carries by running backs, Seattle ranks 29th in yards and 21st in success rate.
Macdonald said he and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb went into the game planning to run the ball more often but couldn't do so "partially because of circumstance."
"But there were some opportunities in the game that we both felt like runs could have been better utilized," said Macdonald, who later added: "We need to get our run game going."
Seattle's run game might get a boost this week with the return of Ken Walker III, who has missed the last two games with a calf injury. Macdonald said Walker had a good workout Monday morning and "feels good."
"Hopefully we'll see him out there on Wednesday," Macdonald said.
Another way to help the quarterback would be to implement more play-action passing. Smith ranks 32nd out of 34 quarterbacks in play-action rate, ahead of only the Dallas Cowboys' Cooper Rush and the Atlanta Falcons' Kirk Cousins. Smith's dropback EPA on play-action passes ranks below average. However, the offense has generated some explosive passes in those situations, including a few Sunday night.
Seattle's first play was a play-action pass to receiver DK Metcalf for 15 yards. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had an 18-yard reception on a play-action concept in the second quarter, and Tyler Lockett had a reception of 22 yards in the third quarter. When asked whether Seattle needs an effective run game to execute play-action dropbacks, Macdonald said the offense's sets and protections have more influence on the defenders' reactions in those situations.
"We do have a good play-action pass game," Macdonald said. "Probably should see more of it, frankly."
Whether play-action or standard dropback, the Seahawks must get the ball to Metcalf more often. Seattle began each of its first two series with passes to Metcalf, yet he finished with just three catches for 28 yards. He wasn't targeted by Howell.
Metcalf hasn't gone over 100 yards since Week 4, and he hasn't scored since Week 7. Seattle players and coaches spoke last week about how the number of resources defenses are dedicating to Metcalf has created opportunities for other players. The game film supports that, but it also appears Seattle is too content to allow Metcalf to set up his teammates.
That sort of approach is fine in certain spots, but whenever Metcalf doesn't get opportunities to affect the game with the ball in his hands, that's a win for the defense. Seattle will have a better chance of defeating Minnesota if Metcalf is more involved, even if that means putting him closer to the action and decreasing how often he runs deep to clear out space for other pass catchers.
Beyond merely executing better, another obvious point of emphasis this week for the Seahawks should be to find more easy plays that get the offense in rhythm. At the moment, they rely mostly on curl routes and the occasional tunnel screen when they want to get the ball out quickly and move the chains. They've experimented with gadget plays to Smith-Njigba out of the backfield, but those haven't been effective enough to hang their hat on when the offense needs a spark. The tunnel screen has produced big plays this year, but it has been sniffed out multiple times in the last few games (twice Sunday night).
Seattle's defense found its footing in the second half Sunday and has reasons to be optimistic, but the same can't be said of the offense until it can adjust its scheme to lessen the burden on the quarterback.