The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its temperature and precipitation outlook for this winter
HAVE MORE OVERSIGHT. NICE WEATHER HERE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING, BUT WE GOT SOME CHANGES THOUGH AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND. YEAH, MAYBE A LITTLE BIT ON THE WET AND STORMY SIDE OF THINGS HERE COMING UP. WE'LL GET TO ALL THAT IN A SECOND, BUT I WANT TO SHOW YOU THE BIGGER PICTURE AND SHOW YOU WHERE THAT STORM SYSTEM IS. YOU CAN SEE BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES NOW SPREADING INTO THE TEXAS AREA, WESTERN TEXAS, TEXAS PANHANDLE, LOOKING AT SOME CLOUDY WEATHER SHOWERS AND SOME STORMY WEATHER HERE IN GENERAL, THAT IS WHAT WE'RE GOING TO BE WATCHING HERE NEXT. BUT FOR NOW, AGAIN, JUST ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, KEEPING US PRETTY MILD HERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL. GOT A FEW CLOUDS HERE IN THE SKY ACROSS THE AREA, ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH SHORE HERE TOO, BUT NOTHING TOO MAJOR THERE. WE COULD SEE SOME OF THOSE CLOUDS INCREASE THOUGH, AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HERE TONIGHT. BUT THESE ARE JUST MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. PROBABLY WON'T EVEN NOTICE THEM TOO MUCH. AND FOR TOMORROW MORNING, WE START OFF PRETTY CLEAR, AND MAYBE A FEW CLOUDS HERE AND THERE ROLLING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT EVERYTHING LOOKING PRETTY GOOD THERE WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS WE HEAD INTO TOMORROW NIGHT AND REALLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WE COULD SAY THE SAME THING, MAYBE A LITTLE BIT ON THE OVERCAST SIDE OF THINGS. WITH THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE SET TO MOVE IN, THAT'S GOING TO HELP INCREASE THE MOISTURE. IN FACT, YOU CAN SEE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AROUND ONE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS, MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS TAKING SHAPE WITH THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WE'RE WATCHING THAT'S BREWING TO OUR WEST, YOU CAN SEE IT INCHING CLOSER AND CLOSER TOWARDS US THIS WEEKEND. MAYBE EVEN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH. I KNOW WE HAVE THE KREWE OF BOUTTE HAPPENING DOWNTOWN. THE WEATHER RIGHT NOW SHOULD BE OKAY. IN FACT, WE MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS, AS I MENTIONED, THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST FIVE AND THEN BY 630, BY THE TIME THE PARADE KICKS OFF, IT'S LOOKING OKAY, AT LEAST FOR NOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY, MAYBE A SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE. THEN BY 8:00, LOOKING AT SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BUT I THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN, HOWEVER, LOOKS TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY. RIGHT NOW I HAVE CHANCES AT 90% SATURDAY SITTING CURRENTLY AT 40%. SO WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID, I THINK OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL THREAT IS MAINLY GOING TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WE HERE IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LOOKING AT ANYWHERE BETWEEN THAT 1 TO 3 INCH MARK WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD PILE UP THE TOTALS EVEN MORE IN SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS. SO THAT'S JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH OUT FOR RIGHT NOW. BUT THERE IS A LEVEL ONE MARGINAL RISK OF SOME FLASH FLOODING IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, YOU COULD SEE THAT RISK DOES EXPAND FURTHER EAST TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR AREA, INCLUDING SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AS WELL ON SUNDAY. THAT IS WHY WE'RE GOING WITH A FIRST WARNING WEATHER IMPACT DAY ON SUNDAY BECAUSE OF THAT VERY REASON. NOW IN THE TROPICS, WE'RE STILL KEEPING A CLOSE EYE. TROPICAL STORM MELISSA NOT THE BEST LOOKING ORGANIZATION OF A TROPICAL STORM RIGHT NOW, BUT IT'S SLOWLY COMING TOGETHER. IT'S ENCOUNTERING SOME BETTER CONDITIONS HERE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH IS WHY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT THIS THING COULD REALLY BECOME A VERY POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. IT LOOKS LIKE, AS IT ENCOUNTERS LOWER WIND SHEAR AND STAYS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA. AS A MATTER OF FACT, MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BUT THE REASON WHY IT LOOKS LIKE A CIRCLE OF UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW, AS YOU JUST SAW FROM THE FORECAST CONE, IS BECAUSE THERE'S A COUPLE OF REASONS. ONE, THERE'S JUST A WIDESPREAD IN THE MODELS BECAUSE THERE'S WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WITH THIS THING RIGHT NOW. AND ALSO IT REALLY JUST DEPENDS ON THE SIZE, STRENGTH AND JUST OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE STORM TOO. THAT'S WHY YOU CAN SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A SPREAD HERE IN THE MODELS, BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF THEM DO SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, AS IT FEELS THE JET STREAM JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF NORTH OF US. HERE THERE ARE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND HAITI AT THIS TIME.