By David Schutz | dschutz@sunsentinel.com | South Florida Sun Sentinel and Robin Webb | rwebb@sunsentinel.com | South Florida Sun Sentinel
Hurricane Erin has a high chance of forming in the next several days in the Atlantic Ocean and will move in the direction of the U.S. East Coast, according to National Hurricane Center forecasters. But where and when the storm takes a turn to the north will determine how much of a threat to land it is.
Erin would be the first Atlantic hurricane of the season.
As of Monday morning, a low pressure system near the Cabo Verde Islands, about 800 miles off the coast of Africa, was becoming more organized and moving west over the Atlantic.
The hurricane center gave it a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours, up from 10% just a day earlier.
AccuWeather forecasters are predicting the storm may reach hurricane strength by the end of this week. The average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 11.
"Several factors are working in its favor, including lack of dust, warm water and a lack of disruptive breezes (wind shear)," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill.
Would Erin be a threat to the U.S. or Florida? It's too soon to know, forecasters say, but odds of the system developing are now very high, and it bears watching this week as it moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph, the hurricane center said.
Forecast models predict the system may reach hurricane strength north of Puerto Rico late this week or into next weekend, according to Bryan Norcross, Fox Weather's hurricane specialist.
At the same time, a high pressure system over Bermuda is forecast to shift east, giving the storm a corridor to turn north, Norcross wrote on his blog, Hurricane Intel.
As of Monday morning, most forecast tracks -- known as the "spaghetti models" -- show the turn coming before reaching the U.S. coast. Such a turn would be a concern for Bermuda.
But because the storm is still far away, the range of possible tracks is broad, with some forecasting a turn to the north will happen well before the system reaches the Caribbean, while other models have the storm coming close to the Florida coast.
A lot could change in the coming days, Norcross said.
"All forecasts for systems that are disorganized or just developing are subject to large errors and will likely change," Norcross said. "This system is both disorganized and just developing."
From the location of the low pressure system on Monday morning, storms take an average of 10-12 days to reach the U.S. coast or the Gulf.
On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an August update to its 2025 hurricane season outlook, slightly lowering its prediction for how many storms to expect but still calling for an above-average season.
"History tells us that activity picks up in the middle of August, so it would be unusual if that didn't happen," Norcross said. "The overall atmospheric pattern looks like it will be generally conducive to storm development for the next couple of weeks."
Two other systems in the central Atlantic, as of 8 a.m. Monday, have only 10% chances of developing into a tropical system over the next week, according to the National Hurricane Center. One is located southeast of Bermuda and the other is a few hundred miles off the coast of Nova Scotia.
That system is expected to move northwest or north and doesn't pose a threat to land, forecasters said.