The National Weather Service said a strong coastal low is expected to develop off the Southeast coast Friday night, Oct. 10, and strengthen as it lifts north, with impacts arriving Sunday, Oct. 12, and continuing into Monday, Oct. 13.
Forecasters highlight the potential for widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion Sunday into Monday.
They also note frequent gusts over 40 mph and peak gusts near 60 mph along portions of the immediate coast that could cause power outages, along with average rainfall on the order of 1 to 2 inches.
Flooding is not anticipated at this time because the rain will fall over a longer duration and antecedent conditions are dry. Exact impacts will depend on the storm's final track and intensity as it drifts north.
AccuWeather meteorologists say the system will produce days of pounding surf, coastal flooding, and high winds from the Carolinas to New England, while also delivering much‑needed rain inland.
"There is a high risk this storm will be designated a subtropical (hybrid) storm, which is why we have designated this system as a tropical wind and rainstorm, and have issued an eye path map to raise early awareness ahead of potential National Hurricane Center (NHC) classification," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
DaSilva noted that "a fully tropical storm gets its energy solely from the ocean, a subtropical or hybrid storm gets its energy from both the ocean and the jet stream or stalled front. We think this will be a hybrid storm as a result."
If it is officially named by the hurricane center, it would be called Lorenzo.
Timing and highest impacts: Conditions deteriorate first along the North Carolina Outer Banks and Delmarva beaches Friday into Saturday, then spread north into New Jersey and the New York City area on Sunday, reaching Long Island, coastal Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Cape Cod Sunday night into Monday.
The strongest winds are expected on and near the immediate coast -- barrier islands, south‑ and east‑facing shores, oceanfront bridges, and capes -- where peak gusts could approach 60 mph.
Heaviest rain will focus near and just inland of the coast, with a general 1 to 2 inches likely and locally higher totals possible on windward slopes and east‑facing shores. Expect erosive surf, dangerous rip currents, and multiple high‑tide cycles that may inundate typical low‑lying spots.
Shore communities from the Outer Banks to Cape Cod should prepare for rounds of coastal flooding, beach erosion, and hazardous marine conditions, while inland areas see beneficial, steady rain and a breezy, cooler turn.
Secure loose items, avoid driving through coastal floodwaters, and monitor local forecasts as small shifts in the track could sharpen or ease impacts where you live.
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