The folks over at Underdog Fantasy have updated their CFB SZN projections for numerous college football quarterbacks.
Below you'll find analysis on 3 passing yardage projections, but Underdog is also offering projections on passing touchdowns and, in some cases, whether or not a quarterback will start a College Football Playoff game this fall.
This story will attempt to predict passing yardage results for 3 notable quarterbacks using factors such as prior efficiency, offensive returning production, play-call tendencies and more.
I get why this projection is where it is -- LSU threw the ball a ton last year and Garrett Nussmeier is one of the top returning quarterbacks in the country. But Nussmeier averaged 7.6 yards per attempt last year and averaged almost 41 passes per game and still came up 10 yards short of this number.
I think it's fair to expect Nussmeier will see some slight efficiency improvements with another year of experience under his belt. But I'd be surprised if the volume was high enough for him to clear 3,750 yards. LSU should look to be less predictable in 2025. Last year in SEC play, the Tigers threw the ball 56% of the time on 1st and 10 -- easily the highest rate in the conference. But LSU wasn't very efficient on those downs as it ranked just 11th in the SEC in pass yards per attempt on 1st and 10.
Mixing in the run game a little bit more with Caden Durham should help LSU's offense out quite a bit, but it will also likely bring Nussmeier's season-long yardage total down a hair. If you need more convincing, Brian Kelly revealed Nussmeier is dealing with a "chronic" knee issue in fall camp. If Nussmeier misses even 1 game to that injury, it's hard to see him coming near this projection.
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The last image anyone has of Drew Allar is him throwing a terrible interception in the CFP semifinals against Notre Dame. And, look, that's sort of who Allar is -- he crushes bad and mediocre teams but has never really risen to the occasion against an elite defense. Here's the good news: Penn State's schedule is quite soft. Yes, Oregon and Ohio State are there. But Allar gets the Ducks at home and there's no one else on the Big Ten slate that really scares you.
Allar threw for 2,668 yards last regular season and I think it's fair to expect a notable uptick in efficiency in 2025. It's his second season under offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki and the Nittany Lions spent a lot of money on their receiver room in the transfer portal this offseason. Penn State also returns the vast majority of its offensive line snaps from 2024 as well as running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, which should help Allar from a continuity standpoint.
The only real red flag I see is that Tyler Warren is no longer on this team. Allar doubters would be right to point that out as legitimate concern -- Warren caught 32.9% of all Penn State completions on 3rd or 4th down last season and all 23 of his receptions on those downs moved the chains. But I'm bullish on Allar being an elite regular-season quarterback (TBD on high-leverage Playoff games) and I think he can surpass this projection if he can find a new safety blanket on late downs.
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Perhaps the greatest irony of Diego Pavia's trash talk-filled summer is that Vanderbilt really prefers to not use him in the passing game until it's absolutely necessary. In 2024, Vandy threw the ball just 42.5% of the time -- good for 14th in the SEC ahead of only Tennessee and Texas A&M. On 1st and 2nd downs, that percentage plummeted to 35.8% in conference play -- dead last in the SEC. Then on 3rd down, Vandy invariably turns to Pavia to save the day (which netted a sub-40% success rate).
So that explains why this number seems so low. The lack of usage really limited Pavia's passing yardage upside. During the regular season in 2024, he averaged a respectable 7.7 yards per attempt but only threw it about 23 times a game.
This is a hunch, but I think Pavia and the passing game will be given a bit more rope this season. Eli Stowers is one of the best tight ends in the SEC and needs to have a lot of usage in this offense for Vandy to be successful. Leading wide receiver Junior Sherrill is also back in Nashville, adding to the offense's overall continuity.
But here's the truth of the matter: Vanderbilt's passing offense left a lot of production on the table last year. A Pavia pass attempt on 1st-and-10 resulted in 8.63 yards on average against SEC opposition. That ranked 3rd in the conference among QBs with at least 50 such pass attempts. The problem, again, was volume. Pavia only threw the ball 60 times on 1st-and-10 in SEC play, which is a laughably-low number considering his excellent efficiency. Kentucky let Brock Vandagriff throw it on 1st-and-10 54 times, for crying out loud.
I think Pavia will probably be around the 7.5 yards-per attempt neighborhood but I'm expecting his attempt rate to go up by a decent margin. If that happens, Pavia is good enough to fly past this projection.