DALLAS -- No need for a long prologue here. Major League Baseball's Winter Meetings are in full swing. They're back in Dallas, and when the Cardinals were last year they left without re-signing Albert Pujols, radically shifting the direction of the franchise for the next decade.
Now they have something else in mind for this winter.
You have questions. I'll do my best to provide answers.
The chat may have to shift and pause every so often for the chance to track down or seek out news.
As always, a transcript of the chat will appear below the window so that it's easier to read on your desktop, laptop, tablet, or mobile phone. Questions are not edited for spelling or grammar. They are ignored for vulgarities and threats.
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Onward!
Heath: If the Cardinals don't end up trading Helsley or Arenado, then isn't it basically the same team as last year minus Goldy?
DG: Plus Fedde for a full season. Minus Kittredge in the bullpen. And, the Cardinals hope, full seasons from Jordan Walker (in the majors) and Lars Nootbaar (off the IL). You make a great point about how little change there would be, and there's definitely that feel -- but there remains the chance for substantive change from the performance. With the concern of the bullpen repeating last year's success. There is also a change to the hitting coach, and coaching changes must get a lot of credit considering how much firing a coach is brought up when a team struggles.
Heath: Who do you think are legitimate possibilities to be traded off of the current roster?
DG: The ones that I've mentioned in the reports: Nolan Arenado, Steven Matz, and there will be some interest in Erick Fedde, and there will be teams that attempt to make bids for Ryan Helsley, but the Cardinals don't expect to be overwhelmed by the offer, not with alternative relievers available as free agents. Keep that in mind.
JCH: Derrick, thanks for the outstanding coverage all year round! Now that the O's signed Oneill Do you think the front office will try to go after one of their young OFs for a certain closer we have available?
DG: I've not heard that come up as a possibility. It's intriguing. Would be the start of conversation and offer from the Orioles that the Cardinals have not had from other teams. But I don't get the sense that the Orioles are all that eager to make a move like that ...
Ron: Whats new on the cards front in winter meetings
DG: They've arrived.
They do expect to continue outfitting the minor-league staffing over the course of the coming week. They have some coordinator positions they are close to filling, and they've had a lot of involvement from all areas of the front office on that vetting, interviewing, planning, and hiring process. They plan to bring on a notable number of new voices in player development, and those hires should stream in over the coming days/week.
Nick: Test test this thing on? Is there news going down right now?
DG: Entirely possible. But the chat is going. It's the winter meetings. Lots can happen -- and it's important to find people to talk about those happenings.
Redbird Farmhands: What is your favorite winter meetings location that you have been to ?
DG: San Diego. It's not close.
Duffy in CT: Regarding the "young" talent mentioned earlier, should we add Matthews, McGreevy, Hence into the equation?
DG: Absolutely. In ink.
Alan: When (if?) Arenado is traded, how long is it until the Cardinals have their next Cooperstown bound player on their roster?
DG: This is a question that will get more and more attention in hindsight. The Cardinals have had a continuous run of more than a century with at least one Hall of Famer in uniform -- Tony La Russa connects eras as Hall of Fame manager, and that's not much of a stretch because the streak starts with Roger Bresnahan, who was a manager. And then onward into the Hornsby 20s, the Gashouse 30s, Musial 40s and on toward the Gibson 60s, Simmons 70s, Smith 80s-90s ... You get the idea. With Pujols & Molina retiring after 2022, and Wainwright after 2023, there is the question of whether Arenado and Goldschmidt extend that through 2024 -- and if they're gone then ... Well, it will have to be a player whose Hall of Fame career is mostly ahead of him, like Ozzie Smith's was when he arrived with the Cardinals or Albert Pujols' was when he reached the majors. In hindsight, a trade of Arenado could be the break in the continuity or the beginning of the next star to push it another decade.
Tony P: Is Chaim Bloom with Mo? What kind of input is he likely to have?
DG: Chaim Bloom is at the meetings, yes. Saw him with my own eyes Sunday evening at the hotel. He is involved in all of the discussions and the decisions the Cardinals are making, as this will be the team he inherits. He is heavily involved, as you'd expect. He is just not the forward facing voice of the team for now. Mozeliak remains that.
Bob the Subscriber: How is running back largely the same roster and not trading the two most valuable players who will be FAs after '25 a "reset" and not just more of the same old same old?
DG: This is a fair and pressing question. It is likely going to depend on how you determine the "same roster." Some might say not having Goldschmidt on it makes it different. Some might say not having Goldschmidt and Kittredge on it makes it different. And so on and so on. What it should do is frame the question that is also important for the Cardinals offseason -- and it's not about the different roster.
It's about what are you doing different to support to the players on the roster, whether they are the same or not. The young players are largely going to be the same, so what is different about what they can expect them in the majors to help them reach expectations.
JuniorGM: I hear the idea to hold on to Helsley until the trade deadline. Why not do the same with Arenado?
DG: I'm not sure where you heard that, so I cannot confirm that is the case, because that is not what has been presented to me as the plan. That is one scenario, for sure. But it presumes a lot that we don't know yet -- such as the standings at the time. The same could happen with Arenado, but I'll caution you about one thing ...
Trading Helsley at the deadline is a classic, straighforward, linear move. Trading Arenado is already a complex, difficult move with money involved, deferred cash, a no-trade clause, and that's just the start. Doing that kind of deal at a deadline with limited time is going to be very difficult for both teams.
Duffy in CT: We've read often about the hitting decline of Goldschmidt and Arenado and how the team needs more hitters. What about their replacements in the field? Could the fielding suffer significantly?
DG: Yes.
This has been a topic of conversation within the front office of the Cardinals, and longtime readers of the chat will know that it was part of the consideration some leadership in the Cardinals gave to a possible reunion with Goldschmidt. It's one reason they didn't close that door entirely because of what they see as a way to assure Masyn Winn and the defense is stable. Now Contreras is there at first, so the discussion has changed.
David: Hard to accomplish a full-on reset if Gray and Contreras are intent on staying
DG: Good of you to point that out, and that is definitely part of the adjusting the Cardinals are doing this winter.
David: Hard to accomplish a full-on reset if Gray and Contreras are intent on staying
DG: Good of you to point that out, and that is definitely part of the adjusting the Cardinals are doing this winter.
milyabe: Promo schedule just dropped. Featured current players... Winn, Burleson, Donovan. Fair to think that's our near-future core?
DG: The Cardinals would really like Walker to be in that group.
JuniorGM: Derrick - who is your competition? Other writers? Local or national? TV reporters? Radio? Are you "friendly" competitors? Anyone you don't or didn't get along with?
DG: Yes.
Mo's #1 Fan: What will take to make this a successful week for the Cardinals in your eyes?
DG: I'm not sure this is the week to judge the Cardinals, but I reserve the right to be wrong on that account. A successful week probably would be a boring week for fans -- because it would be all about generating interest in trades and momentum for deals that follow these meetings. Talked with a few folks on the outside of the Cardinals' decision group today and they were asking a similar thing, suggesting that the Cardinals cannot come to the meetings and expect to complete a trade, only generate direction for one, whether that's a starter on the move or Arenado. A successful week from the Cardinals' vantage point may be filling out the minor-league staff, but I'm not sure that's going to generate a lot of buzz on Xwitter.
Taylor: Derrick, did you happen to see Yadi's brother's comments recently about wanting to manage the Cardinals? If so, does that create pressure on Bloom and Co. to make something happen?
DG: I did see the comments. I appreciated Bengie Molina's insight and fondness for his brother. It does not change anything for Bloom and Co.
Kevin in STL: Were you disappointed with the vote count for Ken Boyer yesterday with Ozzie, Lee Smith and Joe Torre on the committee? Trying not to look at it just thru a "Cardinal fan" lens but if Santo is in...Boyer had the playoff success on top of his regular season numbers.
DG: I was disappointed not because of who was on the committee or because of what contemporary is in the Hall. I was disappointed because Ken Boyer is deserving of Cooperstown. The Hall of Fame doesn't have to be a zero-sum plaque gallery. Santo and Boyer can bother be deserving and both be in there, and it's not necessary to detract from Santo to support Boyer. You can just support Boyer. Boyer needs a champion on the committee, that's for sure. And here's hoping he has that champion at some point. I know the late Rick Hummel was for him.
Mentioned earlier in this chat about keeping Helsley because of the free agents available at the same position -- either for the same cost or for less of a cost in talent. And here we have an immediate example as the Phillies reportedly sign Jordan Romano. Why trade when you can sign?
ICCFIM: How do the Cards view I an Herrera? Long future with the team?
DG: They intend to find out this season if he is part of their longterm catching tandem. That is the goal about clearing playing time at catcher for him and Pages. See who thrives, see who seizes, and see how soon Crooks is set to arrive.
Mo's #1 Fan: Your thought's on the "golden at bat" rumor?
DG: It's not a rumor.
It's also not close to happening, so it mostly just a topic for good baseball banter at this point.
So I had some of my own.
Josh: With players like Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas having fairly unappetizing contracts for other teams, do you think the cardinals would put BOTH Mikolas and Matz in the pen to provide opportunities for up and comers?
DG: Matz's contract is not unappetizing, according to a few teams who have least discussed making a play for him. Just FYI. The rotation/bullpen assignments are going to be clearer in spring training. No such thing as too many starters being ready for the regular season.
Cards Fan: When the Cardinals discussed moving Contreras to first base earlier, one of the reasons they mentioned was that it could extend his career. Was that a reference to his particular style or is that something they meant with regards to the catching position in general?
DG: Catching position in general.
LoveTheCardinals!: Gibson & Lynn formed 40% of the starting rotation (when healthy), and they're gone. So maybe not big names, but those rotation slots will be fille by SOMEONE. So that's another change, yes? (and possibly a HUGE improvement over time...as some of the younger pitchers you've mentioned develope)
DG: Exactly. Well said.
Bryan C: Is there any chance the Cardinals will make a serious bid for Garrett Crochet?
DG: Not likely.
Bake21: Hey Derek. In your article today it said Mikolas wants to stay in St. Louis. Does that mean he would block any deal and not waive his no trade clause? Or was that just his hope to stay?
DG: His preference is to stay. It's unlikely he would accept any old deal, and I would like to get more details on whether he'd accept any deal at all. Like Contreras and Gray, Mikolas has expressed a wish to stay with St. Louis, see the coming season through, be part of whatever comes next, and it would take an appealing place for him to change that opinion.
Britt: This long into the Chat and no Soto questions? Interesting.
Here goes... 2 $700+ million contracts in back to back seasons. This is bonkers, but for super rare talents. These massive contracts aren't going to become the norm right? Is is wrong to think that over 70% of the league can swim in those waters. Even fewer can have multiple mega deals on their roster like the Dodgers. It seems like we're about to enter a 'Keeping up with the Jones' era where 5-7 teams are buying up and consolidating all the star talent while the rest of the league will be lucky to have any of it.
There's a finite supply of stars, 20? 30?, if they're all consolidated to a handful of teams, going to make for a very lousy future for a lot of teams.
DG: The consolidation of talent should be a topic of conversation now before it becomes a problem.
Maybe my "Golden Goose" idea isn't such a bad one ...
TomBruno23: Romano and Helsley are at very different points in their career, especially as far as 2024 performance is concerned. Very similar 2025 salaries.
DG: And one costs only dollars and the other costs significant amount of talent from a farm system.
Josh: A lot of rumors have swirled around the cardinals needing to eat some of Nolan Arenado's contract to complete a deal, do you know if the cardinals are willing to eat some of said contract and if they are, are they willing to eat more of the contract to recieve a better return?
DG: This is not a rumor. This is a report: The Cardinals recognize that they may have to include cash in any trade, and that further adds to its complexity. They know this, and it's part of the discussions. There are reasons why they would have to include cash. Some of it is because of the power downturn, the performance, and what the new team would want as a result. Would not surprise me at all if the Cardinals have to include around or at least $15 million, and that's because the final year of Arenado's contract was added by the Cardinals for the sum of $15 million. So that's their addition to the deal. Could totally see a new team saying it was their offer, they can cover it.
Mo's #1 Fan: In terms of a trade for Arenado, do you see the FO prioritizing to get all of the money off the books, or taking some dead money and getting a prospect or 's
DG: They're preference is prospects.
They're goal is acquiring prospects and finding a mutually beneficial better situation, and if that's not there for them or not there for Arenado, then it's possible a trade won't happen at all.
Marlon: Who misses out most on an opportunity for playing time if the team decides to hold on to Arenado?
DG: Could be Thomas Saggese at this point.
TomBruno23: Any word on Nolan Gorman's popcorn oil regiment this winter?
DG: No. I am enjoying popcorn during this chat, though.
Jojo Disco: Is everyone down on Clark Street on the same page about the vision for 2025?
DG: Had a few conversations last night that sure seem to be drawing from the same mindset, the same shared goal. I can understand why you ask that question. It's a fair one. To me, and this was just my view, there was a tone shift from what was said at the presser to what was said at the GM Meetings, and perhaps the biggest change from one event to the next was Contreras and Gray suggesting they would prefer to remain in St. Louis. Also, it sure does seem that the Cardinals want to lower expectations on the group (see what that does for the clubhouse) and focus on building the support staff around them, but at the same time it's becoming quite clear in all the comments that Mozeliak doesn't want his final year in the big chair to be the team's worth year with him in the big chair. He told me this past week, that they still want to outfit a roster that can compete, can win. That stance is being adopted elsewhere on Clark, too.
We'll hear from the manager for the first time in a few hours.
TomBruno23: Like we have not heard from him in a few hours? What is there to say anyway?
DG: Fair. The phrasing in my sentence was clunky. Marmol hasn't really had a whole lot of interviews since the Cardinals reset press conference. He will be having one here in Dallas in a few hours.
TomBruno23: Cardinals missing a grand opportunity to add a Red One Theme Night with Ozzie bobblehead in The Rock's outfit from the movie. Trying to help generate some revenue for you, BDIII.
DG: Cardinals need a win song. Period. They need a crowd participation win song, whether they do it 30 times or 50 times in 2025, that's academic. They need a win song that brings the crowd to its feet and sings along as the lights trip fantastic.
There has to be a good song. C'mon chat-hive come up with a solution.
Jojo Disco: If DeWitt doesn't stabilize the ship and make the product more exciting, the song fans will be singing will be Taylor Swift's We Are Never Getting Back Together
DG: I'll believe it when I see it.
Andrew W: I would add that Willson Contreras' move from C to 1B is also a reset. Like the young players, Contreras will essentially be learning to field a new position at the major league level. If Contreras wanted to shift his position to prevent injuries and potentially extend his career, the 2025 season outlined by team leadership seems like an ideal situation for him.
DG: That's fair.
MDCardfan: Derrick - Love reading all of your work in the Post Dispatch. You alone are worth the price of admission. To an earlier point, it's a huge problem that all of best talent will be centralized among a handful of teams. It's not a surprise to me to see the cable deals falling apart. From my observation, in this Tik Tok day and age, young people just aren't into baseball as they once were. It just doesn't seem like a growing sport in many markets. I don't purport to have an answer, but I think the current situation is unsustainable. Two thirds of the league will be the farm system for the other third.
DG: This is a concern for MLB -- and I don't say that as if it should be a concern, it is an active and pressing concern for the team. The collapse of the cable model is going to force them into an era of reinvention and that's welcomed in some corners. With some of the highest-dollar franchises, they want to hold on while others are adrift, and we're seeing that play out in the marketplace right now. Not a surprise that some of the teams eager to bid on Soto or other players have their own network, or don't have the TV concerns that other teams do. Meanwhile MLB Network and MLB Media is setting up to broadcast the games for 8-10 teams, all of whom are taking a significant cut from what was expected in rights fees just a few short years ago. Yes, how the contemporary fans get the game is different. I've seen this with my son, who is a freshman in college. He is a huge baseball fan. No idea where he gets it. But he likes to have the game on the background, or he catches up with the highlights on YouTube or Quick Pitch, and he has snapshots that he gets from social media. He seeks out the game and has it in different snippets - but his fondness for the game has grown through them. There is a way to reach fans who like the game delivered in different ways. Provide those different ways. And, yes, having only four or five teams collecting all of the talent is not a way to grow fan bases elsewhere.
Timothy S: Hey Derrick, is A.I. in use for assistance in on-field umpiring decisions? If not, do you foresee this potentially being the case down the road? Certainly not all umpires can recall specific rules verbatim from memory.
DG: It is not. Anything is possible. An AI element of the ABS system is not a far stretch, not at all. But remember that the ABS will be a challenge system. It will be the hitter, catcher, or pitcher who challenges the call. Does AI take that place? Not likely, not with the current idea behind introducing ABS to MLB.
Andrew W: I just wanted to express my appreciation for the P-D's Cardinal coverage, especially since its decision cover the organization's minor league teams. I'm in a Cardinals slack chat that includes several fans who currently live far from St. Louis. Many of us subscribe to the P-D solely because its excellent coverage of the Cardinals. Also, the length and value of your chats have not gone unnoticed either.
DG: Thank you, Andrew. I was talking last night with one of the Cardinals' new additions, and I mentioned to him that I believe the Post-Dispatch is of the few -- if not the only -- to have a baseball writer dedicated to the coverage of the minor-league system as a beat. Daniel Guerrero does that for us, and it's been a key part of improving and expanding our coverage. We know what subscribers expect. And we try to meet and surpass that every season. That remains the goal even as the newspaper industry changes.
marpdagn: Would the dodgers part with bobby miller as part of an arenado trade?
DG: Not sure why they would, no.
marpdagn: Do you see the Cardinals packaging Helsley with Arenado to sweeten the return and cut down on any dollars going the other way?
DG: The deal is complex enough. That, of course, is something they would explore to get a greater return, but it might just bog the deal further down, honestly. I have asked around about this, and not really gotten anywhere with it being a scenario that has traction.
marpdagn: Hey Derrick. Concerned about the starting rotation. Do you see the Cardinals making a play, via trade for FA, for a No. 2 or 3 starter at these meetings?
DG: No. Mozeliak has gone on the record saying he does not expect to go shopping for a free-agent starter. The exception he carved out was Kyle Gibson. Mozeliak said recently that there are some trades where it would lead to some backfilling. But that's down the road.
Palmetto State Fan: You mentioned earlier in the chat that you believe a topic of conversation in baseball needs to be the consolidation of stars or talent. Let's say you have been assigned to lead this conversation. What are some actionable topics that you believe need to be discussed and implemented as soon as possible? I emphasize the word actionable, as has often been discussed a Thank you very much.
DG: Off the top of my head ... Teams need to be in better position to keep their superstar players even if they hit the open market. I don't want to put a governor down on free agents or free market spending. That said, I would like to see some of these fly-over clubs involved in the bidding for major stars. Some of that is jolting a team like the Cubs to act like the big-market team they should act like, and some of that is creating a way for teams to engage in the bidding. So it's a two-prong poker -- poke some of the teams to be more involved, support the spending so that some of the teams can be involved.
An international draft would also be an early part of this conversation, so that a player like Sasaki enters MLB that way -- where Cleveland and Kansas City have a chance at drafting his rights, not sitting outside and unable to make a play for him because of geography, etc.
marpdagn: Trades with the Cubs are rare, but they occasionally do happen. If they can't find an Arenado trade to their liking, what about a swap of bad contracts with the Cubs, Arenado for Bellinger?
DG: Not likely. Not what either team is trying to do, at all.
Ken M: Do the Cardinals just have bad luck on timing? A potential HOF third baseman does not have many suitors, the best closer in the NL in 2024 is not a hot commodity. In other years this would not have been the case. When the Cardinals were shopping O'Neill we heard "not a big market for an oft injured OF who strikes out too much, but now look at his worth.
DG: No one said that Ryan Helsley isn't a hot commodity. Teams are interested. They would rather pay the same price for a lesser closer than pay the talent price and salary to get Helsley. That doesn't change how "hot" a commodity he is. Let's make that clear. Arenado's suitors are limited by his no-trade clause, too. Pretty sure you can drop that "potential," or it's pretty close to being time to drop that qualifier. He's got 10 years in the majors. He's reached the minimum for HOF consideration. One more Gold Glove in the NL and he'll have the most ever in the league at his position. He's got a strong case today.
Craftyrighthander: Thanks for the chats and the great baseball coverage. We are fortunate. I would like to see Kyle Gibson back. You mentioned that possibility earlier. What stars have to align for the Gibson signing to occur?
DG: Other teams don't have to get there first with the best bid. The Cardinals need to trade one of the starters and want to add in a presence like Gibson (which is possible).
Craig: Derrick, enjoying all the podcasts this offseason. I enjoy Wheeler but wish he would let you speak more. Will Ben Fred be appearing soon? I most enjoy when you and he dissect whatever is going on with the Cardinals.
DG: I will make that invitation in the near future because you asked, honestly. Thank you for doing so. I try to be respectful of his time because he does so many things for StlToday already. He and Hochman are doing videos, and Frederickson is already on another podcast, the Mizzou podcast with Eli Hoff. There's only so many hours in the day.
Karl: Has the FO expressed any interest in keeping Fedde and signing him to a long term deal?
DG: Keeping him? Yes. Long-term deal? Not at the moment, no. That is not the direction they've been thinking.
Jacob: Hey, Derrick. No question, but just wanted to compliment you on your last few BPIB episodes. Really good stuff!!
DG: Thank you for listening. Good run of guests. Trying to maintain that trend this week.
Tim: I really thought this offseason and upcoming season would be different. The Cardinals outlined a new way forward. They didn't sugar coat it. They seemed committed. They didn't blow smoke about "we like what we have and we'll compete" like they have in previous seasons. Cut payroll, reinvest in the minors and development. Yet... here we are not even 6 weeks removed from this new way and the Cards seems to, again, not be able to commit. If this is a reset, there is no reason to keep Helsley. He's going to get $6MM in arbitration. For a team that doesn't expect to compete it doesn't matter if you have a closer at all. Half measures again.
DG: He may get $6 million more in arbitration -- but that would be a steep increase and up the market for his peers, too. It's more likely he gets in that $4 million range, say $4.5 million, and even then he's a lot of bang for the buck in that roll. If it means anything, the Cardinals definitely spending on the development. They've added three new high level positions where four months ago there was one. They're about to fill coordinator rolls, some of which have been vacant since 2020 and others that had only been filled sporadically over the past decade. They have new facility upgrades in the works. Advertised investments at the press conference are now actual investments already this winter ...
JB: What do the Cardinals see as the ceiling for JJ Wetherholt? Is there any specific past or present player that you hear him compared to?
DG: I have not heard any comparisons. That could be just because I wasn't listening for them, honestly.
They believe he has a high, top-of-the-order, everyday impact infielder who will shape the game on both sides of the ball and develop more power as he ages in the majors, where he's expected to reach after zooming through the farm system. High expectations. They see him as a No. 1 overall pick-level talent and have set their hopes for his performance accordingly.
Jojo Disco: DG - the FO prepped the fans to be ready to hold their nose and swallow in '25. Fine. But I don't want to do it again in '26 because Mo doesn't want to end his tenure with a last place club. Mo had his chances to go out a winner, we are now moving towards the future. That's the way it works with guys like Goldy too.
DG: I'll let them know.
Taylor: Derrick, I'm not sure if I have missed this in the weeks of reporting or not, but do the Cardinals have a firm payroll number in place now and is it known what that is?
DG: Fair question. They have what ownership called greater "clarity" with spending. Mozeliak told me that they successfully trimmed what they wanted to trim from the payroll -- getting to the point they knew they had to get. That doesn't mean they have a "firm" payroll -- anymore than any team does. Most teams have a general area they want to get, and that slides depending on the opportunities they have. The Cardinals feel they are in a good place with the moves they've already made, and they have a price now for what they're getting on the broadcast fees instead of the unknown there. That all helps identify the range of payroll that works, and how they're mostly there.
Chatter: Sorry about my misfire, Mr. Goold. How do you understand Sonny Gray's wish to remain with the Cards? It's not that I expected him to want to leave; it's that he came here under circumstances like that of Arenado, to make or stay with a contending team. Or am I wrong?
DG: Those who are close to Sonny Gray describe how the present Cardinals and their ability to contend was part of the appeal of coming to St. Louis. He had other reasons, too. The proximity to his home was a big one, and how often he could be back in Nashville from STL. The history of the team is something that he spoke about throughout the season as having an appeal. There is some sense from him that he welcomes the chance to be a veteran/mentor part of a younger team, and that he's liked that roll before. Those factors are in play, too.
Chris: Mo is making more comments with a tone of "don't count us out this year" and suggesting they would like to keep Helsley to stay competitive. Do you get the sense that the Cardinals would now prefer to trade Matz vs Fedde to preserve the stronger projected rotation in 2025 and still open a spot for McGreevy?
DG: I never got the sense nor reported that they would prefer to trade Fedde over Matz. That wasn't anything I heard from a source or could confirm.
Richard McG: Speaking of Gray and Contreras being intent on staying, how flexible is that? For example, we get that they've expressed that. If Arenado and Helsley and even Fedde are dealt, could they see the actual reset not being ideal for staying? Some fans believe there's no way they'll be dealt now, but that can change, right?
DG: I don't think that "fans believe there's no way they'll be dealt." I hope fans don't feel that way. I hope they have taken the coverage and details for what those reports say -- that the players prefer to stay in St. Louis, want to be a part of the Cardinals, and so on. That does not mean that a trade won't suddenly swoop into the Cardinals laps that they then take to the players and suddenly there is a new feeling -- a chance to go to a favored city, a location, or get that much closer to a title. Gray, Contreras, and Mikolas have all expressed a preference to stay with the Cardinals. If the Cardinals get an offer from a team that changes that, then we'll know. The Cardinals approached Arenado to see if he would be open to them exploring trades. He has not requested that or demanded that, and the list of teams that they've contacted is limited.
At this point, their preference does not appear to hinge on the trades that happen around them on the roster. Rather, it still hinges on them seeing the Cardinals and St. Louis as their preferred place to play, and that it would take an unexpected or overwhelming trade from an appealing place to change that.
Bob the Subscriber: In a chat earlier this winter, you said that you would be surprised if Fedde was traded this winter--opposed to the trade deadline. Do you still feel that way?
DG: Yes. But new information is always coming into the market place. That's how I feel today. But I'm not sitting in Team X's suite where they plan to make a big offer to get the Cardinals' attention on Friday -- and thus add new information that isn't available today. The Cardinals are not actively shopping him, if that's what are asking.
JB: Do the Cardinals have any plans for how to address some of their specific deficiencies on offense from last season, specifically, the slow start to the season on offense coming out of spring training and poor hitting against LH pitching and with runners in scoring position?
DG: They have hired a new hitting coach -- and that's where it will begin. He's already been at work and in contact with the hitters. He was in Florida not too long ago working with Pedro Pages at the team's complex in Jupiter. He's had conversations with Nolan Gorman. A lot of what you're asking will take place with the new support/coach for the hitters and the Cardinals knowing they need to get more of that production from the young hitters.
Nor Cal Cards: Loved the humor, and healthy cynicism of this morning's Golden article. Fair point about the "ruin baseball" perspective that didn't materialize in other rule changes. Although, I would say StL nation would still be in grief if Albert wasn't the pioneer breaking that mold for us. Is there actually traction to the Golden At Bat? Let's say there is legit traction and Manfred was not just putting out trial balloons. What is the process for a deep rule change like this?
DG: There does not appear to be traction. It's a fun conversation. Healthy. Ideas like that -- outlandish -- discussions and debate that could lead to changes that help.
Travis W: What is your emotional state during the Winter Meetings? Anxious you'll miss something, excited to see all of the different possibilities, happy to see industry contacts that you may not see on a regular basis?
DG: Not anxious. Sleepless, not anxious. The other descriptions are apt.
Jim from DeBary FL: I get the idea of the Cards stated reluctance to trade Helsley as encouraging a strong bid in trade or don't bother. Like they don't have to trade him, but could be talked into it with a great offer.
DG: Bingo. And with free agents available there's not much motivation from teams shopping for closers at this point. Keep that in mind.
Bretto: In the past, the Cardinals owned several of their minor league teams. Memphis, for example. I know they sold the AAA team, but do they own any of the others? Can the team require minor league players to participate in off season workouts?
DG: They own Springfield and Palm Beach, and the short-season clubs. Yes, players can be required to participate in workouts. That is a) part of the contract and now b) part of collective bargaining with the players' union.
Dan: Before the Cardinals make a move at the winter meetings, what is some good advise on realistic expectations on the return?
DG: Prepare for it to be a Rule 5 pickup. Then anything more than that will be a pleasant surprise, I suppose.
tommyp: Who is in charge of defensive rundown execution??? Our rundowns were embarrassing in 2024
DG: The coaching staff as a group organizes and runs those drills.
Ben C: Thanks as always for taking our questions, DG. Is the FO softening a bit on the retool/reconfigure (anything buy saying rebuild!!!) approach due to the division being stuck in neutral? MIL just lost their best hitter and may trade their closer. PIT/CIN aren't spending. CHI is trying to trade Suzuki or Bellinger. Are they now just trying to hold serve and retool on the fly while the division is in a race to the bottom?
DG: There's probably some of that. Good debate had last night with some of the NL Central scribes about where the teams all stack up right now. The Cubs could just run away with the darn thing, but they aren't acting like it. Pittsburgh has two of the top pitchers. Reds have arguably the most talented roster. The Brewers are the Brewers in the same way division rivals said the Cardinals are the Cardinals in the 2010s. It does feel like the division is still there for the taking, and it may not be until July 27 that the team that takes it does.
Bkburk515: Sorry if the answer has been previously reported and I missed it. But had the renegotiations with Diamond sports happened prior to the announcements of them cutting payroll down, do you think the messaging at the press conference announcing all the minor league development/Chaim Bloom changes coming would have changed? Did they take less of a haircut on their rights fee than they thought? Additionally, do they have a pretty good picture of what kind of revenue the gambling amendment passing will have? I ask all this because it seemed like not too long after all of this happening is when we started hearing a bit of a change in tone from Mo.
DG: I asked that question and was told no, multiple times from multiple people. Yes, the TV situation was part of the consideration. But they've outlined more reasons. The return on recent investments were a big part of it. The realization they had let things slide by not outfitting the minors was part of it. The natural churn of contracts in the front office is a part of it. The hiring of Chaim Bloom a year ago is part of it. They may not have made the same calls with the options -- depending on who you ask. They would have had a precise sense of their TV deal and not have to brace for a more significant cut.
Millo Miller: Derrick, thank you so much for your time during this hectic week for you. Read your article on Mo this morning. Regarding Albert, to me that was a great non-signing. He was having some injury issues and there was no DH in the NL. That contract would have really hindered the Cardinals going forward. It sounds like the Cards want to go young and contend also, which is fine by me. But the quote made by Mo about 2 of the 3 young players can't be good, they have to be special. Isn't this how the Cardinals have constructed their in recent years? Cards can make a deep run if all goes according to plan. Your thoughts Derrick.
DG: The special/not good comment is slightly different than past few years. Think back 12 months and the Cardinals signed three established free-agent pitchers to add known innings, so that they could be consistent and the young pitchers didn't have to be -- well, they could be depth or in the minors. They added Kittredge and Middleton to the bullpen so that they could be good, Helsley great, and the young pitchers complements. They tried to construct a roster that did not need Walker to be great or Gorman to be great because they had great elsewhere, and if they got great from the young players then, zoom, they were going to be much better. Did not happen. This year, it's clearer -- the offense is likely to go where the young players take it. Hence the good/special comment. And there isn't an addition coming from the outside to lessen that need.
South City Steve: BenFred sort of alluded to this in his article last Tuesday, but it feels like DeWitt/Mo are telling fans "We ended up where we are because we were trying to keep you happy." Really? I don't know any fans who wanted Mo to pay a 41-year-old icon chasing 200 wins $17.5m, or give two 35+ year old FAs with local ties, who "wanted to be here", $22m, or extend a pitcher whom Mo referred to as "among the top pitchers in the game today" for $40m. The reset is happening but let's not reengineer what got us to this point, choosing nostalgia and hometown discounts over elite talent... and here we are.
DG: I do know fans who wanted those moves.
I heard from them.
I heard from them when those moves were made. And I know some of them changed what they wanted after the results of those moves became clear. But they didn't have that information at the time.
Neither did the team.
But now you know: I heard from fans who specifically wanted those moves.
Jim from DeBary FL: Any chances the Cards would have a realistic chance at Sasaki?
DG: Does not appear that way. They have one of the smaller bonuses purses for the coming signing period because of the penalty for signing Sonny Gray, and they are not one of the markets that is said to appeal to Sasaki.
Bryan C: I know Nolan Arenado has a no trade clause and there are probably very few teams he would except a trade to. Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, maybe Phillies and Mariners. They all need a 3rd baseman. If the Cardinals traded Arenado and Helsley or Arenado and Fedde or Matz would the Cardinals not be able to get a lot better prospect return with the teams Arenado will except a trade to? All those above teams need a third baseman. Of those teams only the Mets do not need a closer. By adding some one of need to a Arenado trade would that not be a better plain?
DG: That makes sense. Any time a team adds talent to a deal that team is expecting to get talent in return. But you are also adding to the complexity of the deal, and that may also make it less appealing. Please keep in mind that teams are not eager offer the Cardinals as much as possible for their players. They want to win the deal, too. That is on their mind, and one way to do that is not give up prospects and get the Cardinals to pay more of the salary. The way to do that is to simplify the deal, get a feel for the Cardinals motivations, and meet them just enough to get a deal done, not find reasons or allow the Cardinals to find reasons to make the deal bigger, more complex, and pricier.
MI Cardinal fan: Considering the contract for Arenado not being too expensive for what has been paid out lately, don't you believe we should get a couple of good prospects? Thank you.
DG: I could see that argument, sure. Not always easy to sell a team on it when they're going to want to pay the price they set, not the one the previous teams set. The Cardinals were like that with the Rockies after all.
Tony P: What's to be done about the now gigantic revenue gaps between coastal teams and the rest of us shmucks? Who could force more revenue sharing?
DG: The owners could. On themselves.
12fan: Hoping for something from the winter meetings to go under the tree. My wish list--prospects who are almost ready in exchange for Arenado and Contreras. I'm glad the Cardinals are trying to fix their broekn model. Any chance I have a merry Christmas?
DG: If those are the only ways for you to have a merry Christmas, I regret to inform you that you should add some other ways. Is there a type of cookie that you like that would sweeten the holiday, or maybe something less tied to the Cardinals transactions and more related to, say, getting a good pull in a pack of baseball cards? Wish I could bring better tidings to you and your kin.
jyoung: The messaging from the front office seems confusing to me and I've boiled it into a few possible options. If you could help summarize, I'd appreciate it. They implied payroll would really go down, and so would competitiveness, and all the young guys would play. Now they say they will be competitive and they don't want to trade expensive (Arenado) assets or valuable (Helsley) ones. Is this because:
1, They are bad at messaging and don't know what they want to do so they'll ride in the middle again, not really doing anything fully, thus accomplishing neither winning nor resetting
2, They are saying one thing publicly so they don't seem desperate to trade Helsley for nothing and also hoping that people think they'll be competitive so they buy tickets
3, Or, the math changed once they got the tv situation in place and they have a little more money than they thought so they aren't as desperate to trade and thus are hoping to compete a little more.
DG: The Cardinals have not said one way or the other on trading Arenado. They continue to explore trades for him, according to sources, but they haven't acknowledged doing that. So some of the premise you offer is off. They would be willing to make that trade, according to sources.
1. The middle is a place they've been before, regardless of messaging. It's been a constant with them, and it's a good fit for their model. One could argue they've shifted sides of the middle, not shifted out of the middle. That hasn't changed from the presser to today.
2. Yes, there's some leveraging when it comes to the Helsley market, because of course there is. That's always the case. But they've been pretty clear with some sources that they are not motivated to trade him, and I've heard often they would not be surprised if Helsley stayed with the Cardinals. I don't understand what you mean about ticket sales. I give fans more credit than that, I guess.
3. Of course. The TV deal changed. They have an idea what they'll get. It's a 23% cut and not a 40% cut. It's a multi-year deal not scrambling from year to year. This is a lot different situation than they had to brace themselves for just two months ago.
That 3. is probably the most correct of all.
TomBruno23: Carson Kelly and Dan Kantrovitz reunited again on the North Side
DG: That is great for both of them. Kelly has put together a good career and should be lauded for that.
Uncle Eddie: Have you fallen victim to the Topps "error" that is loading an enormously large number of Arenado cards in the holiday packs? Is this an omen of a huge year for him?
DG: I have not. But it sounds fascinating.
And sure. Why not. Baseball cards as tarot cards. What fun.
TomBruno23: DeRosa and Amsinger dropping "Soft Reset" during their Talk With Mo Segment. Check off your bingo cards, BFIB.
DG: When do the t-shirts go on sale?
U R ON THE INTERNET BUDDY: Official scoring has been a topic of lively debate (hits vs. errors) for as long as I can remember. How would you feel about MLB establishing officials scorers with saber metric-based standards for each position? For instance, a third baseman cannot be credited with an error on a batted ball with an exit velocity of 110 mph or higher? Or utilizing catch probability percentage?
DG: That info is already being used for official scoring. It's been introduced over the past few years as part of the call.
Walt: Concerning teams that own their own network; are they able to hide those revenues from profit sharing. ie say the YES network paid the Yankees $1,000 for their rights. What can MLB do about a serrano like that.
DG: I wouldn't call it hidden. But, yes, they can keep that from revenue sharing in the same way profit from development, parking, etc. can be. Teams can adjust those definitions, and that's why when it comes to where a solution for this can come, it's the owners, it comes from the owners, the owners can do this, and if they don't and impose it on the players, see it for what it is. The owners can adjust their revenue sharing.
Mr.Man: Not sure if anyone has asked in a previous chat, but what was your take on the Tommy Edman deal with the Dodgers?
DG: Good for Tommy Edman. He gets to play close to home for a perennial contender, and it's great to see a player get a chance to sign by maximizing what a team thinks he's worth. Excellent deal for him and his family.
DCG: I know the Cardinals don't love the idea of having to eat some money (weird phrase) of NA's deal to get better return, and you cite $15 mil as a possibility. But if the trade got them two top 100 prospects in AAA or AA and another lower minors prospect, that haul could possibly cost them nearly $15 mil if they had to draft and sign them. I would think that a lot of teams would spend $5 mil to snatch a top 100 prospect from another team. I wouldn't want to have to give away money if I didn't have to, but if the price is around what you say to make the deal and it brings back talent that continues to upgrade the pipeline, I say its well worth it. Not my money, I know, but I also don't own an asset that is worth billions.
DG: Of course teams would. Most teams affix a value to the future production of a player and they try to win trades based on that figure. It was one of the things that Michael Girsch helped the Cardinals establish, and it was one of the big leaps the Cardinals made more than a decade ago that other teams (Houston, Baltimore, notably) copied and improved and so on. Of course of course of course a thousand times of course a team would spend that much to get a prospect who has the potential to provide five times that kind of production for the value. That's a no-brainer of a move.
Don't presume that move is possible.
The other team is also aware of the value.
Uncle Eddie: Are there any specific Rule 5 targets you see that could fit with the 2025 team?
DG: That is a Tuesday research project for me. Had other things to pin down today, including this chat.
Bob the Subscriber: Is there any chance the team converts Helsley to a starter? Its the cool hip thing to do! Seth Lugo! Clay Holmes!
DG: This is a worthy and interesting discussion. Does not seem likely. But I'll tell you about a reliever who I did have a conversation about this morning, about him becoming a starter -- or at least getting a look with the longer outings.
Kyle Leahy.
Stay tuned.
John: "But now you know .... I heard from fans who specifically wanted those moves."
TBF, I feel like those fans are the homers who think the front office can do no wrong. It was clear from the beginning that Lynn, Gibson were going to be average at best and most likely below average(which they were).
DG: Average at best was a good move for the Cardinals when it came to filling the rotation with starters. You may not want to hear that, and that's fine, it's OK, that doesn't make it any less true. Do you realize how good average is in the majors these days? Do you realize how valuable and costly average is in the majors these days? Goodness. Average in the majors is quite good and quite valuable for a contending team. It's just not fun. I get that. But average is essential to a contending and thriving team. And I know many fans who also recognize that.
Tim: While the Golden AB seems a bit silly, here's an idea I've taken from the KBO. We've seen the teams with byes in the first round of the playoffs struggle. This is often attributed to off days. So... I say, shorten the Wild Card rounds to "Best of Two" series. Both games are at the higher seed stadium. The higher seed only needs to win one game while the lower seed has to win both to advance. From a purely mathematical standpoint, the lower seed will only win 25% of the time. And you've removed at least one day from the schedule. (Or two if you do them as doubleheaders.)
DG: A compelling proposal. I believe it's one that Max Scherzer and a few others presented during negotiations on the most recent CBA. It's creative. I dig that.
Greg: Any talk about getting rid of the ghost runner-at least until the 12th inning? PLEASE!!!!
DG: There has not been.
Know why?
Brace yourself.
Players like that rule as is.
Ed AuBuchon: If Helsley isn't traded he will become a free agent and Cards will get nothing for him. Signing him long term is a risk too.
DG: They'll get a compensatory draft pick for him. Or -- hear me out -- they can grade him at the deadline if this season goes sideways before then.
Going to have to cap the chat here.
Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol is about to hold a press conference nearby. So instead of answering question, it's my turn to ask some questions. Though with the Cardinals manager there's a good bet that he challenge the questions with questions so I'll just be shifting from this venue answering your questions to that venue where I'll be answering for questions. Should be a hoot.
Check the coverage of his comments and what Mozeliak has to say this afternoon later this afternoon at StlToday and of course in the pages of the morning Post-Dispatch. Lynn Worthy will be at the keyboard for the chat tomorrow from Dallas and the Winter Meetings.
Something will happen. There will be movement. When and how much is the lingering questioning as the chat concludes.
Have a good Monday.
Chat with you soon.
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