The hawkish parliamentary speech from RBA Governor Bullock in the past week and the latest monthly trimmed Australia's mean CPI data for October 2025, which came in hotter than expected at 3.3% y/y (consensus: 3%, September: 3.2%), and breached above the upper limit of the RBA's inflation target band of 2%-3% has significantly reduced interest rate cuts expectations in 2026.
The Australian central bank (RBA) has cut its policy cash rate three times by 25 basis points each so far in 2025, in February, May, and August. Lowering the cash rate from a 13-year high of 4.35% in January 2025 to its current level of 3.6%.
In today's rate-setting meeting, the RBA has maintained a hold on its policy cash rate at 3.6% for the third time as expected, and it is likely the end of its current interest rate cut cycle, as interest rate futures are pricing in over a 70% chance of an interest rate hike by the end of 2026.
All eyes and ears on RBA Governor Bullock's press conference next at 4.30 am GMT.