Recent reports paint a conflicting picture of tax evasion in Italy. While government officials tout increased revenue from tax enforcement, self-reliant analysis reveals a concerning trend: tax evasion has surpassed €100 billion in 2022, reversing pandemic-era declines. This article dissects the "semantic branching" - the diverging narratives - surrounding this issue, examining the data, its implications, and potential next steps.
Senator Nicola Calandrini, President of the budget Commission and a leading figure in the Brothers of Italy party, highlighted a €1.1 billion increase in revenue from tax verification and control in the first nine months of the year. This was presented as evidence of the government's effective anti-evasion strategy.Though, this figure represents only increased revenue from enforcement, not a reduction in the overall amount of tax evaded.
this claim directly contrasts with the findings of the Relazione (Report) on the unobserved economy and tax/social security evasion, published by the Finance Department on october 30th, and initially reported by Il Fatto Quotidiano on October 16th. The report, compiled by an independent commission chaired by Nicola Rossi, reveals that total tax evasion in 2022 exceeded €100 billion - €90 billion in lost tax revenue and €11.5 billion in unpaid contributions.
The government frames enforcement revenue increases as a success, while the independent report demonstrates a worsening of the overall tax gap. This divergence in interpretation is the core of the "semantic branching" at play.