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Lets dive into each team and find a few bets for this blockbuster.
Notre Dame has quietly assembled one of the most efficient and explosive offenses in the country, ranking top-10 nationally in EPA/play (0.24), yards per play (7.18), and marginal explosiveness (No. 1 overall), with an elite 50.0% passing success rate and 9.1 yards per dropback. Their ability to stretch the field is especially dangerous, with a top-5 national rate of 20+ yard completions (25.7%) and a superb 12.6 adjusted net yards per attempt. Defensively, Marcus Freeman's unit is allowing just 5.12 yards per play and ranks 10th in points allowed per scoring opportunity (3.53), while also posting a top-15 red zone TD rate (55.6%) and creating one of the highest havoc rates from the secondary in the country (DB havoc rate = 8.1%, 15th). With three straight wins over Boise State, NC State, and USC by an average of +27 points and top-10 ratings in both SP+ offense and defense, the Irish are charging toward a potential CFP berth behind elite efficiency, balanced explosiveness, and a quietly disruptive pass defense.
Notre Dame's offense under Mike Denbrock has been one of the most potent in the country, ranking 7th in SP+ and 8th in yards per play (7.18) and 3rd in percentage of plays gaining 20+ yards (10.3%). The Irish are brutally effective through the air, boasting the No. 4 passing EPA per dropback (0.35), a 12.6 ANY/A (5th), and a 25.7% rate of completions over 20 yards (5th), while still maintaining a balanced 58.4% standard downs run rate. Quarterback play has been surgical, with a 67.0% completion rate and the 10th-best adjusted completion percentage in the country (73.8%), distributing the ball efficiently to the slot (44.2% of receptions, 14th) and pushing vertical targets at a top-12 air yards per target clip (10.3). While 3rd-and-short conversions (47.1%, 133rd) and fourth-down execution (40.0%, 115th) lag behind, Notre Dame's high early-down success and explosive passing game have consistently buried opponents before those downs even matter.
Player to Watch: RB Jeremiyah Love
Sophomore tailback Jeremiyah Love has emerged as the engine of Notre Dame's ground game, posting 894 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 6.34 yards per carry while leading the team in carries (141). His 49.6% success rate is strong for a high-volume back, and he consistently creates chunk plays with 17.7% of his runs going for 10+ yards and a healthy 3.46 yards after contact per attempt. Love is also a capable receiver, catching 23 of 29 targets (79.3%) for 227 yards and 3 scores out of the backfield with a 49.4% success rate and 47.8% first-down conversion rate. He has fumbled only once without a turnover and remains a key dual-threat contributor in Mike Denbrock's balanced attack and a surefire top-50 NFL Draft selection.
Chris Ash's defense has proven to be one of the more disciplined and effective units in the country, ranking 18th in SP+ with a top-10 mark in points allowed per scoring opportunity (3.53, 10th) and a stingy 5.12 yards per play allowed (38th). The Irish boast one of the most aggressive and effective man-coverage schemes in the nation, using man at a 60.7% clip (3rd nationally) while leading the country in interception rate (5.4%) and ranking 2nd in passes defensed per incompletion (37.4%). Notre Dame struggles to limit explosive plays through the air (125th in completions of 20+), and allows a middling 5.9 yards per dropback against man coverage (66th), though they've struggled mightily in zone (126th in yards per dropback). The defensive front holds strong in the run game with a 3.7 yards-per-carry allowed average (13th), but the pass rush remains middle-of-the-pack (76th pressure rate) despite a high blitz rate, leaving the Irish reliant on disciplined coverage and timely havoc from the secondary to force stops.
Player to Watch: CB Leonard Moore
Ascending cornerback Leonard Moore has recorded 14 total tackles (11 solo) with a solid 73.7% tackling rate and seven total havoc plays, including three pass breakups, an interception, and a forced fumble. In coverage, Moore has allowed just 7 completions on 17 targets (41.2%) for 76 total yards and one touchdown, producing a stellar 35.3% forced incompletion rate and a microscopic 15.0 opposing QB rating. His physicality and poise beyond his years make him one of the most promising underclassman defensive backs in the nation..
Navy has been a steamroller ranking 3rd in success rate, 2nd in yards per play (7.47), and 2nd in yards per dropback (10.0), while leading the nation in rushing success rate (55.1%) and 3rd-down conversion rate (53.8%). Quarterback play has been more potent vertically than the traditional Navy passing attack, posting a nation-leading 14.6 adjusted net yards per attempt with 29.2% of completions going for 20+ yards and a top-5 EPA per dropback (0.41). Defensively, however, the Midshipmen remain a liability, sitting 84th in SP+ and ranking 103rd or worse in points per drive, yards per drive, and pressure rate allowed, with the DB unit posting one of the lowest havoc rates in FBS. Despite a paper-soft schedule (120th), Navy's profile suggests the offense can score with anyone, but upcoming matchups against Notre Dame, USF, and Memphis will put their shaky pass defense and depth to the test.
Navy's offense has been a hallmark of efficiency, ranking 3rd in success rate (52.7%) and 2nd in both yards per play (7.47) and yards per dropback (10.0). Their ground game is the backbone, leading the nation in rushing success rate (55.1%), stuff rate (10.8%), and yards per carry before contact (3.25), while boasting the 2nd-highest run rate on standard downs (81.8%). The passing game complements the run-heavy attack with remarkable vertical efficiency, ranking top-3 in FBS in adjusted net yards per attempt (14.6), 20+ yard completion rate (29.2%), and explosive pass rate on standard downs. Despite their slow pace (133rd in seconds per play), the Midshipmen average 3.43 points per drive (9th) while allowing the 3rd-lowest havoc rate in the country.
Player To Watch: QB Blake Horvath
Blake Horvath has been the focal point of Navy's option-based offense, starting all eight games while throwing for 1,143 yards with a 63.6% completion rate and a healthy 16.8 yards per completion. While the passing attack is more about surprise than volume, Horvath's 10.3 yards per dropback and 12.2 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) highlight his explosiveness when called upon. On the ground, he leads the Midshipmen in rushing with 936 yards on 136 carries (6.88 YPC), posting a 54.4% rushing success rate and scoring 13 touchdowns. He has forced 0.17 missed tackles per rush, generated 6 runs of 20+ yards, and gained a first down on 37.5% of his attempts, though ball security has been a concern, with 6 fumbles (3 lost).
Navy's defense has held up reasonably well against the run, ranking 40th in yards per rush allowed (4.4) and 27th in yards after contact, but they struggle to consistently get stops, sitting 93rd in success rate and 117th in down‑set conversion rate. The Midshipmen generate below‑average disruption, posting just a 13.2% havoc rate (113th) with limited impact from the defensive line (92nd in DL havoc) and secondary (128th in DB havoc). Their biggest liability is the pass defense, where they rank 102nd in yards per dropback allowed, 105th in explosive pass rate allowed, and 134th in air yards per completion, making them highly vulnerable to big plays through the air. While they force opponents into long‑yardage situations on third down, they struggle to finish drives -- ranking 75th in points allowed per scoring opportunity and 123rd in yards per drive allowed -- resulting in a defense that bends early and breaks late.
Player To Watch: Edge Landon Robinson
Landon Robinson has emerged as Navy's most productive defensive lineman, pacing the unit with 5.5 sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss, and a team-high 8 total havoc plays. His remarkable 97.4% tackle rate and 94.6% run involvement underscore a consistently disruptive presence in the trenches, where he's logged 204 pass rushes and a solid 9.3% pressure rate. Robinson has created five sacks and leads the defense with eight run stops, making him a cornerstone of Navy's front. Despite not forcing any fumbles, his quick time to first pressure (2.75 seconds) and ability to collapse the pocket on early downs gives this Navy unit a physical edge in the interior.
Notre Dame and Navy team stats, betting trends
Notre Dame has missed 4 extra points this season, most in FBS
ND is 3-5 Against The Spread, with a +17.5 average scoring margin
Navy is 2-6 ATS with a -4.9 cover PPG average
The Midshipmen are 6-2 to the Over, which ranks 5th in FBS
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While Notre Dame's defense started the season slowly allowing 27 points to Miami and 41 to Texas A&M, the Irish have found their footing since then. Arkansas managed just 13 points against them while Boise State and NC State managed just a lone touchdown, and BC scratched out 10 points last week. Last year ND throttled the Midshipmen 51-14 and I think we get more of the same this season, so i'm taking Navy to score Under 14.5 points against the Irish.