We've finally broken our 46-day dry streak as a Pacific storm system moves into Texas, bringing some much-needed rain to the region.
Just a few days ago, October 2025 was on track to be Austin's driest on record, but in true Texas fashion, this weekend's rain could completely erase the city's monthly rainfall deficit from normal of more than 3 inches.
Strong thunderstorms moved through Central Texas overnight but are now shifting east, giving us a break in the activity. Little to no rain is expected from mid-morning through early Saturday afternoon as the atmosphere stabilizes a bit after the first round of storms.
A flood watch issued Friday by the National Weather Service for a large swath of South-Central Texas was set to end at 1 p.m. Saturday. The watch area included parts of the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and major metro areas along the Interstate 35 corridor, such as Austin and San Antonio.
Most forecast models for Saturday show a redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms in Central Texas later in the afternoon as the upper-level trough of low atmospheric pressure, the system responsible for triggering all the rain, swings through.
"Some (forecast models) are indicating destabilization occurring mid- to late afternoon Saturday across portions of the eastern Hill Country, I-35 corridor north of San Antonio, and Coastal Plains," the regional National Weather Service office for Austin wrote in a forecast posted online Friday afternoon. "With steep, elevated lapse rates and moderate wind shear still in place there will be a threat of isolated strong to severe storms across these areas late afternoon, with large hail the main threat."
They noted that this will be a conditional threat of destabilization occurring. The weather service's Storm Prediction Center still has the Austin metro area and a chunk of Texas east of I-35, including Houston and Southeast Texas, under a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather Saturday afternoon. A level 2 risk means that scattered but brief severe thunderstorms capable of delivering large hail and damaging winds, even a tornado, are possible.
Any activity that develops on Saturday afternoon should wrap up as the sun sets. A dry northwest wind will take over on Sunday. This will allow for lots of sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the mid-60s and mid-80s. Monday will be the warmest of the week before another cold front arrives on Tuesday with the coolest air so far this season.
Austin and its neighboring communities are especially susceptible to flash flooding from excessive heavy rainfall because of its location in what's known as "Flash Flood Alley."
The region recognized as Flash Flood Alley follows the curve of the Balcones Escarpment from Dallas to Austin and then extends just southwest of San Antonio. The escarpment is not only the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country, it's also the natural boundary between the semi-arid higher elevations that stretch into West Texas and the humid Coastal Plains leading to the Gulf of Mexico.
The hilly terrain of the Balcones Escarpment provides the air flow with extra vertical lift, which helps with storm development. The region's rocky, clay-rich, shallow soils also limit infiltration, so rain quickly becomes runoff into streams and rivers.
Beyond natural factors, human-made ones matter, too: Rapid urban growth along the Interstate 35 corridor and the replacement of green space with pavement reduce the ground's ability to absorb heavy rainfall, increasing the risk of major flash flooding in this region.