ROCHESTER -- By all appearances, sociologist Michael Bronstein's research grant is active.
In March, the National Institutes of Health grant -- which sponsors his team's research on COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among people with severe mental illness -- was terminated, along with hundreds of others. Weeks later, a lawsuit forced the federal government to reinstate many of those grants, including Bronstein's.
Though it no longer appears on the government's public list of canceled grants, the research project is not quite back to business as usual.
"The government has decided that they are going to refuse to disperse the second year of funding," said Bronstein, the grant's principal investigator and assistant professor at the University of Minnesota Twin Cities. "We're kind of in limbo."
Since President Donald Trump's second term began in late January, the Department of Health and Human Services -- especially the NIH and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -- has undergone various changes, from firings and reinstatements of hundreds of employees to axing research grants containing terms such as "diverse," "trans," "BIPOC" and "women."
"There was a high watermark of ... 1,799 grants terminated," said Eleanor Dehoney, senior vice president of policy and advocacy at Research!America, a medical research advocacy nonprofit. "Since then, 860 have been reinstated."
As of Dec. 12, eight Minnesota NIH grants remain canceled, per the government's list: four at Mayo Clinic in Rochester and one each at St. Catherine University, Hennepin Healthcare Research Institute, HealthPartners Institute, and Priogen Corp.
Of the Mayo Clinic grants, one aimed to "develop a concise educational module that will prove to be useful to cancer health care providers and ultimately to (sexual and gender minority) patients with cancer," per the outcomes summary on that grant's NIH RePORTER page. Its funding was cut on March 20.
The Post Bulletin reached out to Mayo Clinic for this story but did not receive a response.
The NIH has also awarded fewer new grants -- 12,588 -- this year, compared to previous years' average of more than 16,000, a New York Times analysis found. The reduced number of grants affects all areas that the NIH's institutes cover, from cancer (down 24%) and mental health (-43%) to diabetes (-30%) and minority health (-61%).
Additionally, many 2025 grantees received their four years of funding upfront, rather than staggered over the grant's four- to five-year lifespan, Dehoney said.
"Nothing good or bad with doing it that way," Dehoney said of the lump sum payments, "but if you do it right away without increasing NIH dollars, the number of grants you can give out drops."
With a medical research powerhouse situated in a relatively small city, Rochester's economy is particularly sensitive to changes in research funding; a recent Brookings Institute analysis found that the Rochester labor market has the highest NIH funding per capita in the nation.
Another looming issue, Dehoney said, is the 15% cap on indirect costs that the NIH, National Science Foundation, Department of Energy and Department of Defense all tried to enact this year. At the NIH, a judge blocked this policy, but the Trump administration has appealed the ruling, leaving it in flux for now.
"The administration is still fighting for a 15% cap on indirect costs," Dehoney said, "and that would really hurt, particularly major institutions like Mayo that have a lot of important fixed costs."
These upheavals and uncertainties have hindered opportunities for early-career researchers, Dehoney said.
"I've never seen such a demoralized early-career workforce," she said. "There's so much that has stopped, and because universities don't know what their funding outlook is, they don't bring on the (postdoctoral researchers)."
For Bronstein and his team, they're making progress on their research, but at a much slower pace. They also aren't able pay the graduate students they hired conduct some of the project's clinical interviews. Bronstein said he has heard from other students who are struggling to find paid jobs in university research labs.
"Funding is now more precarious and more difficult to attain, and so it's hard to have that extra money to support students," Bronstein said, "even though that's so important to the future of the field."