PLTR at a Critical Pivot: Will Smart Money Step In or Let It Slide?
Palantir got hit hard on Friday -- down over 5%, closing near $175, as fear washed through the entire market. The stock followed the same downward rhythm as NVDA and TSLA, breaking below key trend levels before catching a late-session bounce. But the question now is: is this just a dead-cat move or a sign of smart money starting to accumulate?
Let's break it down from both the 15-minute intraday structure and the 1-hour GEX setup, which gives us a real sense of how volatility and positioning could drive Monday's move.
15-Minute Intraday Technical View
Friday's chart shows a clean descending trendline, and PLTR is still trading beneath it. Each rally attempt last week was met with sharp rejection near the 179-180 zone, which now acts as the first ceiling to watch at the open.
That said, we're seeing subtle but important signs of exhaustion in the selloff:
* MACD is flipping from deep red toward light blue bars -- momentum is slowing.
* Stoch RSI has turned up from oversold territory, hovering around 30-40, suggesting short-term bullish potential.
The immediate support zone sits between 172 and 169. Buyers defended that range late Friday, forming a small higher low structure on the lower timeframe.
If PLTR holds this area and breaks above 177-179, it could trigger a quick relief run back toward 184-186, where heavy resistance sits along the upper channel.
But if PLTR fails to stay above 172, we could see another leg down toward 165, where the next support cluster lies -- and possibly deeper toward 150 if the broader market remains under pressure.
Intraday traders should keep it simple:
* Above 179 → look for scalp longs toward 184-186.
* Below 172 → shorts open up back to 165-167.
This is a reactive, not predictive, setup day -- let the price show strength before trusting a bounce.
1-Hour GEX Analysis -- Options Sentiment
The options market is lining up tightly with the chart levels. The HVL (Highest Volatility Line) sits right around 177.5, which is almost exactly where PLTR stalled at the close. That level acts as a near-term pivot -- reclaim it, and the pressure starts to ease; lose it, and volatility spikes again.
Above current price, there's a clear cluster of Call Walls around 185, 190, and 195, meaning that's where dealer resistance will kick in. These levels act as "gravity caps" for the stock unless implied volatility drops.
Below, we've got Put Walls stacked around 165 and 150, showing heavy downside hedging. The options flow still leans defensive with CALLS at 23.9%, confirming that traders remain cautious going into Monday.
IVR sits around 46.8, while IVX sits at 72.4 -- both high but cooling slightly. This suggests volatility expansion may have peaked, leaving room for short-term relief moves if the market finds its footing.
From a GEX standpoint, PLTR is in negative gamma territory below 177, meaning dealers are selling into weakness. If the stock reclaims 180 and holds, gamma turns neutral, which could spark a quick momentum squeeze.
My Thoughts and Trade Ideas
PLTR is sitting right at the intersection of fear and opportunity. The downside momentum looks tired, and both MACD and Stoch RSI are hinting that sellers may be running out of fuel.
Still, this is a name that moves fast both ways -- and Monday's VIX behavior will decide the direction.
If volatility cools off early, PLTR could be one of the first tech names to bounce.
* For day traders, long above 178-180 with targets at 184-186, stops below 172.
* For option traders, consider 180C or 185C for a short-dated pop if SPY holds up.
* If the market opens weak and PLTR breaks 172, switch to 170P or 165P and let it ride -- momentum will accelerate quickly in that scenario.
My bias: cautious bullish as long as PLTR stays above 172, bearish only if that floor breaks cleanly.
Final Take
PLTR is at a crossroads. The technicals suggest a possible intraday bounce, but the 1-hour GEX map shows strong overhead resistance.
It's all about control -- if buyers can reclaim 180, we could see a short-covering push into the 185-186 zone.
If not, it's another trip down the ladder toward 165.
This week will separate patience from panic.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always trade responsibly and follow your own plan.