The Thanksgiving NFL slate is here, delivering a tripleheader packed with playoff implications, fantasy football drama and betting angles -- and we've got the advanced data to break it all down.
PFF's media research team has spent the week pulling every key metric, matchup note and data-driven talking point used by our broadcast partners across the league. Now, those same insights are yours. Whether you're setting lineups, placing bets or just looking to sound like the smartest fan at the Thanksgiving table, here are the must-know analytics and storylines for every Thanksgiving matchup.
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GB@DET | KC@DAL | CIN@BAL | CHI@PHI
Coming off a shutout performance against the Giants (zero pressures allowed), Penei Sewell is in the middle of one of his best seasons in pass protection, allowing a career-best 2.9% pressure rate with no sacks surrendered. His toughest matchup of the year, however, came all the way back in Week 1 against Micah Parsons, whose 21% pass-rush win rate is the highest mark Sewell has allowed in 2025. Parsons has fully lived up to Green Bay's acquisition cost, ranking top five in pass-rush grade (92.9), total pressures (60) and sacks (10.0).
Jordan Love was sharp in the intermediate passing game during the Packers' Week 1 win over Detroit, completing six of nine attempts for 93 yards and two touchdowns on throws 10-19 yards downfield. That efficiency has carried through the season, as Love owns a 91.1 passing grade (third-best) and a 128.3 passer rating (fourth-best) on intermediate throws. The Lions have struggled in that area, allowing the fourth-most passing yards against intermediate attempts (865).
The Chiefs are one of the few defenses equipped to challenge the Cowboys' one-two punch at wide receiver, thanks to their outside cornerback duo of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. Only five qualifying cornerbacks have earned a 70.0-plus man-coverage grade this season, and McDuffie (70.9) and Watson (71.0) make up two of them. By comparison, George Pickens ranks first in receiving yards vs man coverage (373) and CeeDee Lamb ranks fifth (267), making Dallas the only team with two pass-catchers inside the top 10.
Kansas City also leads the league with 7.3 offensive plays per drive, with the chain-moving ability of Kareem Hunt playing a major role. His 10 rushing conversions against the Colts last week tied for the second-most by any player in a game this season, and his 34% rushing conversion rate leads all runners with at least 100 carries. That could spell trouble for a Cowboys defense that ranks last in the NFL with a 31% rushing conversion rate allowed.
Not only do the Bengals get Joe Burrow back this week, but they also regain Ja'Marr Chase from his one-game suspension. Chase has historically torched the Ravens -- four of his five most productive receiving games have come against Baltimore -- and 84% of that production has arrived against their zone coverage. He's continued that success in 2025, ranking fifth in yards per route run vs. zone at 2.65.
It could also be a big night for Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely when the Ravens deploy 12 personnel. Baltimore uses two-tight-end sets on 39% of snaps, the second-highest rate in the league, and this week they face a Bengals defense that has struggled against that grouping. Cincinnati has allowed the fourth-most yards per play (6.2) and the most passing touchdowns in coverage (9) when defending 12 personnel.
Caleb Williams is known for extending plays, but he delivered a more controlled performance in Week 12 against Pittsburgh, posting a season-low average time to throw of 2.66 seconds. On throws released in 2.5 seconds or less, he went 13-of-19 for 186 yards and all three of his touchdowns. Replicating that efficiency will be tougher against an Eagles defense that has allowed the league's lowest passer rating on such throws at 81.3.
Even in a loss, the Eagles managed to get A.J. Brown rolling against Dallas with eight catches for 110 yards and a touchdown, plus a season-high six receiving conversions. How they used him also mattered -- Brown gained 70 of those yards on targets inside the numbers, far surpassing his previous season high of 27. Chicago presents another favorable opportunity in that area, as the Bears have allowed the second-most yards per catch to wide receivers inside the numbers at 14.1.