In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno breaks down the latest on the tropics.
* Tropical Storm Melissa's future track and intensity remain highly uncertain, according to the National Hurricane Center.
* The storm is currently less than 1,000 miles from Florida and is expected to strengthen as it slows near Jamaica.
* Forecasters say the chance of direct impacts on the southeastern U.S. is low, though a southwest track could increase its strength.
* The jet stream's movement is a key factor that will influence whether the storm stalls or is pulled northward.
Tropical Storm Melissa continues to keep forecasters guessing on where it will go and how strong it will get.
The storm is currently less than 1,000 miles out from Florida and is expected to strengthen in coming days as it slows down near Jamaica.
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"There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa," the National Hurricane Center said.
"Chances of a major hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest," NHC forecasters said. A major hurricane is one that is at least a Category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph.
Here's what you should know.
Highlights on what Tropical Storm Melissa is doing now
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
See satellite photos, graphics of Tropical Storm Melissa
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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Is there a hurricane coming to North Carolina?
Not at this time.
There is "significant uncertainty in the track and intensity" for Tropical Storm Melissa, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters predict that Melissa could strengthen into a hurricane by Oct. 23, with the potential to become a major hurricane if it tracks farther southwest.
However, experts say the likelihood of it affecting the southeastern U.S. is low.
"At this time, I think the chances of any direct -- or even indirect -- impacts on Florida, beyond waves and rip currents, are very low, around 15% or so," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said via email Oct. 21.
"The more likely scenario is that the storm moves across Cuba and then heads out to sea. By the end of this week into the weekend, Melissa is expected to stall or move very slowly near Jamaica or Hispaniola. Sometimes when tropical cyclones stall, unexpected things can happen, so we're watching closely. If impacts did occur, it would likely be around the middle of next week, near Halloween. There's nothing imminent right now, but it's something to keep an eye on as we monitor trends and model data."
Fox Weather echoed the low risk. "Chances of some direct effect on Florida aren't zero, but they are extremely small," hurricane expert Bryan Norcross said via email Oct. 21.
"The only way it could happen would be for Melissa to drift into the extreme western Caribbean before a dip in the jet stream across the U.S. scooped it north," Norcross explained. "There is no indication of that in current reasonable track scenarios. Still, a path over Cuba and the Bahamas is not out of the question."
AccuWeather noted there is a "medium risk of tropical rain or wind impacts across the Bahamas and South Florida from Oct. 27-30."
Jet stream expected to influence where Tropical Storm Melissa will go
"Melissa is currently being tugged northward by a dip in the jet stream, but late this week that dip will move away into the Atlantic, leaving the storm in a weak steering flow. That's why we expect it to stall near Jamaica or Hispaniola and possibly drift westward," DaSilva said.
"The key question is how far west it can get. If it reaches the western Caribbean, Florida could come into play. We've seen late-season storms like Wilma take a similar route, though we're not forecasting that kind of track right now.
"Another dip in the jet stream is expected early to mid-next week. If Melissa drifts far enough west before then, that next trough could pull it northward toward or near South Florida.
"The more likely outcome right now is that the storm stays east of Florida. We've seen a slight westward trend in the models over the past 12 hours, but that could be temporary. We'll know more as new hurricane hunter data improves the model guidance over the next day or so. Weak steering currents make the forecast tricky, and that's why you see such a wide spread in the model plots," DaSilva said.
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network.