A new report, UK Food Security - Outlook to 2050, warns that the potential loss of up to 23% of currently farmed land to competing demands could displace food production at an unprecedented scale. Housing, solar energy, tree planting, biodiversity restoration, and carbon sequestration are highlighted as major pressures.
The analysis, published by Science for Sustainable Agriculture (SSA) and led by Dr Derrick Wilkinson, uses AI-assisted forecasting based on 25 years of government data on farmland use, yields, and food supply. Projections extend to 2050 under different land use and population growth scenarios.
© SSA
Between 2000 and 2024, the UK lost 771,000 hectares of farmland, equivalent to 4.4%. Under current trends, a further 835,000 hectares could disappear by 2050. If government land-use, environmental, and net-zero policies are fully implemented, nearly 3.96 million hectares, or about one quarter of farmland, could be lost, much of it high-value arable land.
Despite a 15% increase in yields per hectare since 2000, population growth has outpaced production. Per capita food output has fallen by 5% over the past 25 years, and self-sufficiency in primary agricultural products has dropped by 12%. The report notes that growth in yields has slowed in the past 10-15 years, affected by extreme weather, higher input costs, reduced access to crop protection products, tighter restrictions on inputs, and production-limiting farm policy incentives.
In a worst-case scenario, domestic food production could decline by more than 32% (39% per capita) by 2050. Depending on population growth, imports would need to increase by 160-260% compared with 2024 levels. With the population projected to reach between 75 and 80 million by 2050, demand is expected to continue rising as farmland shrinks.
The report stresses that greater reliance on imports could expose households to higher prices and supply disruptions, particularly affecting lower-income groups. It would also shift the environmental footprint of food production abroad, with biodiversity and climate impacts occurring elsewhere.
The report calls for better integration of policies across agriculture, environment, energy, food security, and trade. It suggests focusing on "land sparing" strategies that concentrate high-yield production on the most productive land, rather than "land sharing" approaches that can reduce yields. Scientific innovation, technology adoption, and targeted support are highlighted as necessary to boost productivity on remaining farmland.
Dr Wilkinson said: "We are struggling to keep up with the loss of farmland over the past 25 years. New demands for land to address environmental concerns, coupled with rising food demand from a growing population, mean that we must find innovative ways of producing more food from the land we have left."
© SSAFor more information:
Daniel Pearsall
Science for Sustainable Agriculture
Tel: +44 (0) 7770 875455
Email: [email protected]
www.scienceforsustainableagriculture.com