The Trump administration has long viewed the Maduro government not only as an authoritarian regime but as a linchpin in a broader network of leftist governments that undermine U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and help pave the way for Russian and Chinese soft power.
On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a "total and complete blockade" of sanctioned oil tankers leaving and entering Venezuela, a sharp escalation of the already mounting campaign the Trump administration has pressed on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The U.S. already seized one tanker, headed for Cuba and China, off the coast of Venezuela last week after a federal judge issued a warrant for its seizure. While Trump's Truth Social announcement added that the blockade would apply only to "all sanctioned oil vessels," analysts believe that even the threat of further seizure could deter companies looking to export Venezuelan crude, a cornerstone of the Venezuelan economy. Companies have already demanded changes to spot contracts and sought out steeper discounts in response to last week's tanker seizure.
In fact, oil exports remain Venezuela's primary source of foreign currency and government revenue; nearly all crude shipments leave the country by tanker. Even a partial interruption to exports or a shift toward higher-risk and higher-cost transport arrangements would undoubtedly reduce the flow of dollars into an economy already struggling with inflation and currency depreciation. One regional analyst told Reuters that the official currency exchange rate against the dollar is already depreciating by about one percent daily, with the recent blockade announcement expected to pressure that rate significantly. As tensions continue to escalate between the U.S. and Venezuela, the country's leverage decreases with oil buyers, forcing it to accept lower prices - further damaging its already fragile economy.
Oil markets responded strongly to the blockade announcement, with crude prices rising by more than one percent as traders priced in the risk of tighter supply and heightened geopolitical tensions. Although Venezuela produces a low volume of oil in the global market, the Wall Street Journal reports that the blockade disruption could affect approximately 590,000 barrels of oil per day, mostly headed to China.
Tuesday's blockade announcement follows months of U.S. military activity in the Caribbean. Since September, U.S. forces have conducted more than two dozen strikes on boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific that Washington says were involved in drug trafficking. According to reporting from Reuters, those strikes have killed at least 90 to 95 people, with the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) coming under increased scrutiny for its methods in the southern region. The U.S. currently has 11 warships deployed in the Caribbean, including an aircraft carrier, amphibious ships, cruisers, and destroyers, as well as Coast Guard vessels and expanded aerial patrols along Venezuela's coastline, all under the purview of DOD's Operation Southern Spear, led by the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM).
Behind the U.S. escalation in the southern hemisphere are pointed fingers at Venezuelan links to transnational drug trafficking, specifically the so-called Cartel de los Soles, an alleged network involving current and former members of Venezuela's leadership, which was designated as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) by the U.S. in November. That same month, Trump said that while U.S. actions had already deterred trafficking by sea, land-based operations would begin "very soon." If this threat is genuine, the U.S. could find itself in a protracted land conflict, which is unlikely to garner enthusiastic support amongst the general American public, who may be doubtful of the threat that the Venezuelan illicit drug trade could have on U.S. security.
Even so, some analysts question the stated justification of counternarcotics concerns for military intervention in Venezuela, especially after Trump issued a presidential pardon in November for former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who was sentenced by U.S. federal courts last year to 45 years in prison for facilitating the movement of "tons" of cocaine into the United States. Tuesday's actions and Trump's comments on Venezuelan oil nationalization have certainly fueled concerns about the role oil has played in the Trump administration's escalation.
In his same post announcing the blockade, Trump stated that Caracas should return "Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us," possibly referring to Venezuela's nationalization of its oil sector in 2007 under Hugo Chávez. María Corina Machado, Maduro's main opposition and winner of the Nobel Peace Prize for her campaign against him, even appealed to Trump by using Venezuela's oil and gas reserves, calling it a "$1.7 trillion opportunity." If given the chance, it is unlikely Trump would deny the opportunity to access Venezuela's natural resources, given his emphasis on energy dominance in his National Security Strategy (NSS). However, an analysis by Keith Johnson in Foreign Policy points out that Venezuela occupies a distinct place in Trump's -- as well as Marco Rubio, his Secretary of State and National Security Advisor's -- worldview, shaped by political grievances. U.S. actions appear less focused on controlling Venezuelan oil than on denying the Maduro government the revenue it generates.
Rubio has long viewed the Maduro government not only as an authoritarian regime but as a linchpin in a broader network of leftist governments that undermine U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and help to pave the way for Russian and Chinese soft power. In looking to destabilize and potentially unseat Maduro -- as Maduro himself claims is the motivation of the Trump administration -- Trump and Rubio appear intent on reasserting U.S. influence in Latin America, a region often viewed within its sphere of influence. Maduro is also closely aligned with other governments the United States has historically viewed as adversarial, most notably Cuba. Havana has relied for years on subsidized Venezuelan oil shipments to help offset chronic energy shortfalls, meaning that disruptions to Venezuela's oil exports carry secondary economic and political consequences for the Cuban government as well.