LOS ANGELES -- We've previously seen all the pieces that comprise USC's 2025 football schedule. Now, we can view the Trojans' puzzle in full.
Here are some thoughts on USC's slate in 2025, which is shaping up to be a critical season for Lincoln Riley.
I'm not sure how good the Trojans will be in 2025. They're taking some significant personnel hits through graduation and the transfer portal.
But USC couldn't have asked for an easier four-game stretch to open the season. The opener is a home game against a Missouri State program that will be making its FBS debut in 2025.
Clay Helton returns to the Coliseum on Sept. 6 -- nearly four years after he was fired by USC -- as the head coach at Georgia Southern. The Eagles, out of the Sun Belt, are 8-4 this year and headed to the New Orleans Bowl to play Sam Houston.
The first road game is at Purdue. The Boilermakers just hired Barry Odom, who did a great job in two seasons at UNLV. But this is a massive rebuild.
I've seen Jonathan Smith-coached teams give USC all they can handle (and then some), but if he wins this game on the road in Year 2 of his build at Michigan State, the Trojans (and Riley) will have some very serious problems.
One of the main things that became apparent during USC's first season in the Big Ten: There aren't many layups. The Trojans lost to average teams (Minnesota, Maryland), had a tough time against another middle-of-the-road team (Nebraska) and barely beat a bad team (UCLA). It was rough sledding even though the schedule might not have looked overwhelming on paper.
After the first four games, USC's schedule gets much tougher. At Illinois on Sept. 27 is the type of game the Trojans haven't won lately. USC has an off week to prepare for two physical opponents -- Michigan in the Coliseum on Oct. 11 and at Notre Dame the next week. The Trojans are fortunate to have their second off week after those two games -- something that was planned by the league office.
"We really treated that as like it was a conference game, just in terms of how we built the schedule model," Big Ten chief operating officer Kerry Kenny told The Athletic. "That's why you see with that one the two byes kind of buttressing the Michigan home game and the Notre Dame away game for them. That was just to try and make sure that they didn't have to play a road game in South Bend and then go on the road immediately again the following week."
November will be challenging as well: at Nebraska, vs. Northwestern, vs. Iowa, at Oregon, vs. UCLA. Northwestern and UCLA are the two easiest games in the second half of the season, but on the right day, those teams can present a unique set of challenges.
The Trojans went 1-4 on the road this season -- and the lone win was against UCLA in the Rose Bowl. Not exactly a grueling road trip.
USC didn't play particularly well on the road in 2023 either. There were underwhelming victories against outmanned Arizona State and Colorado teams and a troubling 50-49 win at Cal, and the Trojans were manhandled at Notre Dame and Oregon.
The opener at Purdue shouldn't be too taxing, but none of the other road games (Illinois, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Oregon) can be chalked up as wins right now. The Trojans haven't won at Notre Dame since 2011 and haven't won at Oregon since 2005. It's really difficult to forecast USC winning at either spot next season. I wouldn't.
It will be the first time Helton has stepped foot inside the Coliseum since he was fired two weeks into the 2021 season. He dug the program into a serious hole that was going to make life difficult for the next coaching staff.
We'll probably see a comparison of Helton and Riley's records through three years often this offseason and leading up to that game. (Helton went 26-13 overall and 19-8 in league games in his first three full seasons. Riley is 25-14 and 17-10.) Those comparisons always feel disingenuous because Helton inherited a stacked roster that Steve Sarkisian recruited. Helton left a bare cupboard for Riley.
But the mess Helton made can no longer be used as an excuse for Riley, who is approaching his fourth season. He's had ample time to mold this roster. It's better than what Riley inherited but still not close to where it needs to be.
Right now, I believe USC will be facing a talent deficit in at least three games -- Michigan, Notre Dame and Oregon. Some might argue that wasn't the case this season against Michigan and Notre Dame since those games were tight deep into the fourth quarter. That may be true at some of the skill spots, but the Trojans certainly faced an uphill climb where games are ultimately decided -- in the trenches. I don't expect that to change next season. And Oregon clearly has more talent across the board than USC.
We'll see how USC goes about addressing its roster holes before assessing where it stands relative to the remainder of the schedule.