We're at the halfway point of the college football season, which means it's the perfect time to do something a little unreasonable: project the teams that will play in Shreveport's Independence Bowl.
Is it still just a guess? Absolutely. Do we think we actually know what the matchup will be at this point in October? Absolutely not. But its still fun to guess, and even if we don't have it exact, these are at least teams you should start paying attention to.
Plus, now that we've seen these teams play for a couple of months, we at least have an idea of who they are. So let's take a look at our midseason projection for our big game.
First, the basics. This year's Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl is set for Tuesday, December 30th, right here at Independence Stadium in Shreveport. Kickoff is scheduled for a perfect 12pm noon start, giving you plenty of time to enjoy your evening after hitting the game.
This works out really well if you have family coming to town for the holidays. Because you can either escape them by going to the game, or you can treat them to the game if you really like them.
The official tie-in for the game is a matchup between the Big 12 and Conference USA. If one of those two conferences doesn't have enough teams to fill all of their bowl commitments, the Indy Bowl has a backup agreement with the Sun Belt Conference.
However, thanks to the wild world of conference realignment, you'll see some surprising names pop up in the national predictions. But sometimes these reporters are misinformed on who the Independence Bowl is actually contracted with. We can blame the former Pac-12 for all of the confusion.
There have been some of the national writers that have listed the American Athletic Conference as a backup for the game, but they do not have an agreement this year. There has also been talk of former Pac 12 teams being eligible for this year's Independence Bowl, but the Independence Bowl staff tells us that agreement wrapped up in 2024...meaning there are no ties to former Pac-12 schools for 2025, unless they're in the Big 12. This year was actually supposed to serve as the final year of the BYU agreement directly with the Indy Bowl, but that was put together before BYU entered the Big 12.
The only way some of the team names put out by national publications could happen would be if the Indy Bowl fell into the "at large" pool of teams. This happens if multiple of the contracted conferences can't fill a spot, and would open the invites to everyone.
So who are the experts picking to come to town? Here's a look at some of the biggest predictions floating around this week:
Predictor: CBS Sports
Prediction: Kansas vs. California
Our Take: As we discussed above, the only way Cal gets into the Independence Bowl is if two of the Big 12, Conference USA, or Sun Belt agreements are unfulfilled. That's the only way to get an "at large" team, which is the only way to get Cal, who is in the ACC.
Predictor: Athlon Sports
Prediction: California vs. Kansas
Our Take: Do you ever wonder if these guys are just cheating off each others homework? So when one gets the answer to question 2 wrong, everyone who cheated off them gets question 2 wrong as well. Kansas is alive for the Independence Bowl, and seems like a solid choice. But it's a near impossibility for Cal to get the other spot.
Predictor: College Football News
Prediction: Tulane vs. Arizona
Our Take: A little bit more confusion here. Arizona could totally take the Big 12 spot in the game (if they become bowl eligible), but Tulane is another near impossibility. With no current agreement between the Independence Bowl and Tulane's American Athletic Conference, they would have to be an "at large" team. Which means to get them in this matchup, Conference USA and the Sun Belt would both have to miss filling their spots, and then you'd have to hope NONE of the other bowls wanted a team like Tulane (spoiler alert, they would). In this one, Arizona has a shot, Tulane does not.
Predictor: Sports Illustrated
Prediction: Kansas State vs. UConn
Our Take: This one is a bit of a wildcard...but Kansas State is totally in play. Their biggest issue right now is finding 3 more wins. They have tough sledding against rival Kansas, highly rated Texas Tech, and they have to visit a Utah team who has only lost to ranked teams this year. They will have to find an upset in the next 5 weeks, and win against teams they're expected to beat to even get the 6 wins needed to go bowling. UConn football doesn't have a conference...they're straight independent. So we enter into the same "at large" mix we've talked about with other randoms getting suggested.
Now, on a local level, where we understand who is actually contracted with the Indy Bowl, what are we looking at?
Our biggest hope this year doing predictions has been that Louisiana Tech finds their way back to Shreveport. Last year, the Bulldogs came in clutch to help the game happen. But that Bulldogs team wasn't as good as this year's squad. It would be nice to see a return this year, with a better chance to win their matchup in Shreveport.
However, Tech didn't help the cause this week, as they lost to Western Kentucky in Ruston. The end of the game was inexplicable, and the team lost 28-27 on their home field. Now they have to find two wins over their last 5 games to get bowl eligible.
If not Tech, Conference USA could send Jacksonville State (also need two more wins) or Kennesaw State to Shreveport.
The Big 12 already has 4 teams that are bowl eligible, and might not be as worried about the College Football Playoffs stealing teams from the bowl bid mix as they were. Now that Texas Tech has lost, BYU remains the only undefeated team in the Conference. Even if they don't lose before the playoff selections, they might still be on the bubble till the end. There's a case to be made for BYU getting left out, even if they don't have a loss...because the Big 12 isn't an automatic bid.
Big 12 teams like TCU, Baylor, and Colorado remain as programs who are almost bowl eligible that would help the Independence Bowl this year. TCU and Baylor are local enough that it could help drive ticket sales, while Colorado has the national power of Deion Sanders behind them...which would help TV.
Right now, with all things considered, our midseason pick is going to change a bit from what we've been thinking. Partially due to this week's Louisiana Tech loss. Here's what we have:
Baylor vs. Jacksonville State
Is it sexy? No. But it has some regional draw, and it gives Conference USA a chance to showcase one of their best against a big name program.