AccuWeather meteorologists are expecting life-threatening flooding in Jamaica, the Dominican Republic and Cuba, leading to a potential humanitarian crisis in the days ahead.
* Hurricane Melissa has intensified into a Category 4 storm in the Caribbean and is expected to strengthen further.
* Jamaica is under a hurricane warning, with forecasters predicting catastrophic flooding, landslides, and life-threatening storm surge.
* Hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings are also in effect for parts of Haiti and Cuba.
* Significant direct impacts to Florida and the U.S. East Coast are not expected at this time.
There's not a trace of a storm in the sky over downtown Sarasota, which looks absolutely stunning on this 81-degree Sunday morning, Oct. 26 -- a brilliant, vivid blue with just a few wispy clouds drifting past the bright sun that will soon shine over the free-admission Taste of The Bay event taking place from noon to 3 p.m.
But to the south, Hurricane Melissa has intensified into a monstrous Category 4 storm in the Caribbean and is expected to strengthen further as it approaches Jamaica, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Melissa is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday, and is expected to cause extensive damage to infrastructure, lengthy power and communication outages, and isolation of communities.
Forecasters urge residents of Jamaica to seek shelter immediately as damaging winds and heavy rainfall today and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before the strongest winds arrive. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the southern coast Monday night and Tuesday morning.
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Catastrophic flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek and possible in southern portions of the Dominican Republic.
Eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor Melissa closely as the risk for midweek impacts is increasing.
Melissa is expected to move westward today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday.
While some waves and rip currents are possible, depending on when Melissa takes a turn northeast, significant impacts to Florida and the U.S. East Coast are not expected at this time.
Residents should continue monitoring the tropics and local weather. On Saturday, for instance, the Palmetto Marriott Resort and Spa, located just north of the Manatee River, canceled its Fall Festival.
"Due to sustained winds exceeding 15 mph, it has been deemed unsafe for our vendors and our guests," reads the social media post. "For the safety of our community and participants, today's Fall Festival has been canceled.
Here's what you should know about Hurricane Melissa.
Where is Hurricane Melissa now?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Hurricane Melissa summary, as of 8 a.m., Oct. 26:
* Location: 120 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica; 280 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba; 754 miles south of West Palm Beach, Florida
* Maximum sustained winds: 140 mph
* Movement: west at 5 mph
* Pressure: 952 mb
Hurricane Melissa: What you need to know
At 8 a.m., the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 76.4 West.
Melissa is moving toward the west near 5 mph. A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica through Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph with higher gusts. Melissa is a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further rapid intensification is expected through tonight, followed by fluctuations in intensity.
Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.
The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 952 mb.
What is rapid intensification?
Rapid intensification occurs when wind speeds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours.
Hurricane Melissa spaghetti models, projected path
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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See map of hurricane/tropical storm watches, warnings issued for Florida
As of Oct. 25, no watches or warnings associated with Hurricane Melissa have been issued for Florida or the U.S.
Hurricane watch issued for Jamaica, portion of Haiti
* A hurricane warning is in effect for:
* A hurricane watch is in effect for:
* A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Storm tracker: How strong is Hurricane Melissa and where is it going?
Hurricane Melissa has maximum sustained winds of 140 mph.
Melissa is moving toward the west at 5 mph. A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday.
Is Hurricane Melissa coming to Florida?
Most current models show Hurricane Melissa being picked up and being shoved to the northeast into the Atlantic.
"The timing and strength of a dip in the jet stream over the eastern United States next week will help determine the path that Melissa takes through the northern Caribbean and into the southwestern Atlantic," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "At this time, the odds of 'direct' rain and wind impacts from Melissa reaching the U.S. East Coast are low.
➤ WeatherTiger: Melissa a monster in the making with Florida dodging the bullet
Melissa poses "little to no risk to Florida or the continental U.S.," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
"Odds of any outer bands of Melissa even minimally scraping southeast Florida on its way out (into the Atlantic) are around 5%."
Forecasters encourage residents to monitor the tropics and to always be prepared.
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Melissa
Current forecast: Where is Hurricane Melissa going and how strong could it get?
* As of 5 a.m.: 140 mph, Category 4 hurricane
* 12 hours: 150 mph
* 24 hours: 160 mph, Category 5 hurricane
* 36 hours: 160 mph
* 48 hours: 155 mph, just south of Jamaica
* 60 hours: 140 mph, just north of Jamaica
* 72 hours: 120 mph, over southeast Cuba
* 96 hours: 110 mph, over water
* 120 hours: 90 mph
A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph.
What impact could Hurricane Melissa have and what areas could be affected?
* Wind: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in Jamaica, with hurricane conditions expected by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti have diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of hurricane conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday into Wednesday.
* Rainfall: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm totals. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.
* Storm surge: Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
* Surf: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
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