After a false introduction to fall a few weeks ago, Ontario has flip-flopped back to a bit of a late-summer heat wave to close out the final days of the warmer season. But don't let the 20+C temps fool you, as autumn proper is close on the horizon. And, new forecasts reveal what we can expect, weather-wise, in the weeks to come.
With September 22 marking the first day of astronomical fall (and meteorological fall having already begun on September 1), the leaves are already changing, the seasonal events are already kicking off, and yes, the cooler conditions are on their way.
Earlier outlooks from authorities like the Farmers' Almanac and Environment Canada called for a dry, pretty warm start to things that could gradually become more frigid and "unsettled" by mid-October.
Now, The Weather Network has put forth its own predictions, too, with experts anticipating that above-normal temperatures will stick around across much of Ontario in the next few weeks.
In his formal projections for the season, TWN Senior Meteorologist Doug Gillham noted that there is already a "dramatic contrast" in weather across the country as we move closer to the end of the year, which will continue as the west drops further into colder territory before the east of the country -- including southern Ontario -- follows suit.
"Fall is typically a turbulent and changeable season as we make the transition from summer to winter. However, during the heart of the fall season, from mid-September through October, we expect that this fall will feature an extended stretch of more consistent mild weather with fewer than the typical number of fall storms for most of Canada," Gillham wrote this week.
"This should provide us with periods of pleasant weather for getting outside and enjoying Canada's fall foliage."
He added, though, that the network "does not expect that the relatively mild conditions will last all the way to the end of the season," with November bringing "a return to a more active and changeable pattern, which is typical for late fall -- for parts of Canada this will mean a rather abrupt transition into early winter."
It appears that for Ontario, this transition will happen before November reaches its end, with the more northerly parts of the province seeing more wintery temps before the south, as usual.
Northeastern Ontario in particular is also on track to see higher precipitation levels than the rest of the province -- and than normal -- in the coming months, with most of the remainder of the country set to see a pretty average amount of rain and nothing too out of the ordinary as far as fall storms (Northeastern Ontario, Quebec, Labrador and the territories being exceptions here).
But, the balmy, unseasonably warm temps we're currently experiencing should last for the rest of September and October, and even into the beginning of November, along with quite a bit of sun, especially around the GTA and Ottawa area, before a "more active" and chillier end of that month.