Optima Health PLC (AIM:OPT) heads into its 10 December interim results with momentum and rising demand that is structural, not cyclical.
Panmure Liberum's preview frames a business moving in step with a labour market under strain and a government newly focused on keeping people in work.
The trading update in October confirmed that first-half revenue should land at about £59 million, in line with expectations and roughly 17% ahead of last year's £50.8 million.
Organic growth of around 3% mirrors market rates, while three acquisitions since the IPO provide the rest of the uplift. Panmure includes a further £2 million of operating income linked to an appeal against the Department for Work and Pensions, noting that remedies are still to be determined.
Profitability was not addressed in the update, though the broker forecasts adjusted EBITDA to hold around £8.8 million as the company absorbs higher National Insurance costs and the expenses of being newly listed.
Net debt ended the half at £4.7 million, only £2.5 million above year-end despite £6 million spent on acquisitions, a signal that free cash flow is comfortably supporting the buy-and-build strategy.
Demand cues are clear. Citing British Chambers of Commerce data, Panmure highlights that about 7% of the UK workforce, roughly 2.8 million people, is out of work due to long-term sickness, with another 300,000 leaving the workforce annually for health reasons.
Budget commentary on helping employees stay in work underlines the policy backdrop.
Acquisitions remain central. Three deals since IPO add £17 million of revenue for £7.5 million invested, with integrations on plan. Investors will look for detail on the AFRS contract, which has begun to mobilise and could bring up to £290 million over its full term, with meaningful contribution expected from FY2027.
Panmure keeps its 225p target price, supported by EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA valuations of 213p and 226p and a DCF of 248p. For a newly listed company operating in a stretched public-health ecosystem, the broker sees a platform well placed for growth.