High pressure remained in control of Alabama's weather on Friday, but high clouds from thunderstorms to the west spread across parts of the state. The cloudiness held temperatures in the upper 60s across the western Tennessee Valley, 70s over north-central Alabama, and 80s across the southern two-thirds of the state.
ALABAMA THIS MORNING
Mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies prevail across Alabama this morning. The nearest rain and storms are near the Texas-Louisiana border west of Shreveport. Temperatures range from the 40s in the Tennessee Valley -- like in Ardmore -- to the 50s over most of the state, and into the 60s along the coast.
Moisture levels are increasing rapidly ahead of the next storm system, setting up a wetter pattern for the coming days.
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ALABAMA 7-DAY FORECAST
Dry, comfortable weather continues through Saturday, with skies gradually turning cloudier as a low-pressure system moves out of the Southern Plains. Easterly winds will bring in moisture, setting up a more unsettled pattern beginning Sunday. Highs today will range from the low 70s in north Alabama to near 80 farther south, with comfortable humidity levels before changes arrive.
SUNDAY STORMS
Widespread rain moves into Alabama Sunday as a front pushes eastward. Scattered showers will develop by afternoon, becoming steadier and heavier overnight. Rainfall totals of 0.5-1 inch are likely through Monday morning, with isolated higher amounts across western Alabama. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, but instability remains limited for severe storms -- except south of U.S. 84, where isolated damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado can't be ruled out.
UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK
Another disturbance will approach by Tuesday night or Wednesday, keeping rain chances in the forecast. Model timing varies, but at least scattered showers are expected. Temperatures trend cooler behind the midweek front, with highs dropping into the upper 50s and lower 60s by Thursday and Friday.
LATE-WEEK COOL DOWN
Drier and colder air filters into Alabama late in the week, bringing a more seasonal feel as we move into November. Highs in the upper 50s to near 70 will feel crisp, with morning lows dipping into the 40s -- possibly upper 30s in sheltered valleys of north Alabama. After a soggy start to the week, sunshine and cooler air dominate next weekend.
HEAT HOLDS STRONG IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Summer refused to quit across Deep South Texas on Friday as several cities set or tied record highs.
* Brownsville: 95° (old record 93° in 1893)
* McAllen: 96° (ties record)
* Palacios: 88° (old record 87° in 2012)
SEVERE WEATHER IN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
A potent system is producing rounds of severe thunderstorms today from central Texas into Louisiana and the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible through tonight as supercells organize along a front. Storms will shift east into the Southeast on Sunday, bringing heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast.
FLASH FLOOD THREAT STRETCHES EASTWARD
Slow-moving thunderstorms fueled by deep Gulf moisture are producing rainfall rates over two inches per hour from eastern Texas to western Mississippi. Totals of 3-5 inches could lead to localized flash flooding, especially in urban and low-lying areas. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall through tonight.
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOAKED BY ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
Another surge of Pacific moisture is drenching Washington, Oregon, and northern California with heavy rain and mountain snow. Isolated flooding is possible, especially on windward slopes. Cooler, drier air arrives Sunday with gusty winds and lower snow levels.
TEMPERATURES SPLIT COAST TO COAST
Warmth persists across the southern tier, with highs in the 80s and 90s from the Gulf Coast to South Texas, while cooler fall air dominates the Midwest and East with highs in the 50s and 60s. The Pacific Northwest cools further behind successive fronts.
MELISSA COULD BECOME CAT 4 OR 5
Tropical Storm Melissa is on the verge of becoming a hurricane this morning as it drifts south of Jamaica with sustained winds near 70 mph and pressure around 982 mb. Conditions are rapidly improving for intensification, and Melissa is expected to become a major hurricane -- possibly Category 4 or 5 -- by Sunday or Monday.
Forecast models show a track dangerously close to Jamaica early next week, with the island facing 3-4 days of tropical-storm- to hurricane-force winds, 20-30 inches of rain, and catastrophic flooding. Eastern Cuba, southern Hispaniola, and later the Bahamas and Turks & Caicos will also face growing threats as Melissa accelerates northeast midweek.
DANGEROUS MARINE AND BEACH CONDITIONS
An unsettled but non-tropical weekend continues along Alabama and northwest Florida beaches. Persistent east winds of 15-20 mph are generating rough surf and dangerous rip currents unrelated to Melissa. A High Rip Current Risk remains through Monday and a High Surf Advisory continues through Sunday night, with waves of 3-6 feet.
Expect partly sunny skies today with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 and water temps in the mid-70s. Clouds increase Sunday with a few showers before conditions improve early next week as winds turn northerly and surf subsides.
FOOTBALL FORECASTS
Alabama State vs. Alabama A&M - Magic City Classic
Saturday, 2:30 p.m., Legion Field
Cool for the morning parade (50s early), warming into the low-70s under partly sunny skies. Temperatures hold in the mid-70s through kickoff, slipping near 70° by game's end.
Auburn at Arkansas - Saturday, 11:45 a.m.
Cloudy and damp in Fayetteville. Periods of rain likely throughout the game, temperatures steady in the low to mid-60s. Ponchos recommended.
Alabama at South Carolina - Saturday, 2:30 p.m.
Beautiful fall weather in Columbia with sunshine, dry conditions, and pleasant temperatures.
TODAY IN WEATHER HISTORY - October 25, 1925
Before dawn, a violent F4 tornado tore across southern Alabama, carving a 65-mile path through Crenshaw, Pike, Bullock and Barbour Counties.
Entire families were lost as homes, churches and schools were destroyed. Eighteen people were killed and 60 injured in what remains one of the most devastating autumn tornadoes in Alabama history.
IMAGE OF THE DAY
Tonya Griffin captured a stunning scene from Talladega Friday evening -- an Alabama sky glowing above a billowy cotton field.
For more weather news and information from Bill Muray and the rest of the James Spann team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.