Chances have increased that the next tropical storm in the Atlantic hurricane season will form next week.
On Friday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said a tropical wave off the west coast of Africa had a 40 percent chance of developing into a storm, up from 30 percent the previous day.
Why It Matters
The NHC forecast comes despite this year's Atlantic hurricane season experiencing a lull.
Peak season usually occurs on September 10. However, there were no tropical storms or hurricanes in the Atlantic basin on that date this year, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek.
Nevertheless, meteorologists are urging people to remain alert, as sea temperatures remain high and storms can still form well into October and even November. The Atlantic hurricane season runs through November 30.
What to Know
On Friday, the NHC issued an update about the tropical wave, saying chances of a tropical storm forming within the next seven days had risen to 40 percent. On Thursday, the disturbance had a 30 percent chance of forming.
However, chances the storm will form within the next 48 hours remain near zero.
"A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic," the most recent NHC update said. "Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system over the next several days. A tropical depression could form by the middle part of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic."
Before this disturbance, wind shear had acted "like a buzz saw for hurricanes" in the Atlantic basin, "cutting storms off even before they get going," according to WFLA chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli.
In a post on X on Tuesday, Berardelli said the wind shear -- meaning a rapid change in wind velocity or direction -- was a reason why the Atlantic should remain quiet for the next 10 days. It remains to be seen if the disturbance off the coast of Africa will face challenges from the wind shear.
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: "Just because it's a quiet season doesn't mean that we want to let our guard down."
WFLA chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli posted on X on Thursday: "Hurricane Killing Shear! A more pleasant sight [has] not been seen in September. In my decades of doing this, I can't remember a stretch in peak season with this much wind shear across such a vast area of the Atlantic. It's overwhelming to hurricanes across most of the basin. The shear over the Gulf remains in place at least 10-15 days. Now, if only we can keep this going through October! Everyone cross those fingers!"
NHC in a post on X earlier this week: "September 10 is the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. It's been relatively quiet in the tropics lately, but in this video, Senior Hurricane Specialist Brad Reinhart and Hurricane Specialist Andrew Hagen explain how 60% of activity typically occurs after September 10, and that our attention starts to turn toward the western part of the basin as we head into late September and October."
What Happens Next
Meteorologists will continue tracking the disturbance in the Atlantic. As of Friday, there are no tropical storms or hurricanes in place. However, people in hurricane prone areas are urged to remain on alert through the remainder of the season.