The Toronto Blue Jays are gearing up to make a major splash in next year's free agency, with reports from The Athletic suggesting the team is preparing a realistic bid in the $500-600 million range to retain superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. This potential mega-deal underscores Toronto's desperation to keep their homegrown talent and solidify their status as a franchise willing to spend big.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is coming off a stellar 2024 season where he reaffirmed his place as one of baseball's elite hitters. Playing in 159 games, Guerrero slashed an impressive .323/.396/.544, including 30 home runs and 103 RBIs. His 165 wRC+ ranked among the league's best, highlighting his ability to produce runs at an elite level. Guerrero also posted 5.5 WAR, demonstrating his value as a key offensive cornerstone for the Blue Jays.
Guerrero's bat remains one of the most potent weapons in baseball, blending raw power with plate discipline. His .396 on-base percentage reflects his ability to draw walks and get on base consistently, while his .544 slugging percentage showcases the power that has made him a fan favorite in Toronto.
While Guerrero has solidified himself as an elite hitter, his defensive metrics at first base leave room for improvement. His defensive runs saved (DRS) and outs above average (OAA) metrics indicate below-average performance at the position, leading many to believe he profiles better as a designated hitter in the long term. This transition could maximize his offensive potential while reducing the wear and tear on his body over the life of a long-term contract.
The Blue Jays' reported willingness to spend up to $600 million to retain Guerrero signals a major shift in the organization's philosophy. Historically cautious with long-term deals, Toronto appears determined to shake that perception and position themselves as a destination willing to pay for top-tier talent. Retaining Guerrero on such a deal would not only ensure their lineup remains potent but also send a message to future free agents that the Blue Jays are serious about competing at the highest level.
While Guerrero's offensive production justifies a massive contract, the Blue Jays will need to carefully balance his potential deal with the rest of their roster-building efforts. Committing $500-600 million to one player could limit flexibility in addressing other areas of need, particularly in the starting rotation and bullpen. However, Guerrero's star power and consistent production make him an invaluable asset, and Toronto seems prepared to make the necessary sacrifices to keep him in a Blue Jays uniform.