After his escalating tariff threats and grandstanding against India, it now appears that President Donald Trump is bowing to China -- a nation that, interestingly, also maintains business ties with Russia.
Trump on Sunday urged China to quadruple its soybean purchases ahead of a key tariff truce deadline, sending Chicago soybean prices higher, though analysts were quick to question the feasibility of any such deal.
Trump's appeal is part of a broader effort to reduce the United States' trade deficit with China and to support American farmers, many of whom have been economically strained by China's retaliatory tariffs on agricultural goods.
Soybeans are a politically and economically strategic crop for the U.S., particularly in rural states that are key to Trump's voter base. Since earlier trade conflicts led China to reduce U.S. soybean imports in favor of countries like Brazil, American farmers have faced lower prices and declining export volumes. By urging China to increase soybean purchases, Trump aims to alleviate domestic farming pressures while framing it as a step toward balancing trade between the two nations.
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The move is also strategic in the context of the expiring tariff truce -- meant to prevent further economic escalation. Trump's call appears designed to pressure China into making concessions before the agreement ends.
In a late night post on Truth Social, Trump said China was worried about a shortage of soybeans and he hoped it would quickly quadruple its soybean orders from the U.S.
"Rapid service will be provided. Thank you President XI," Trump said in his post.
"It's highly unlikely that China would ever buy four times its usual volume of soybeans from the U.S.," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting.
Reuters previously reported that Chinese feedmakers have purchased three Argentine soymeal cargoes as they aim to secure cheaper South American supplies amid concerns about a possible soybean supply disruption in the fourth quarter.
If China follows through with the purchase, it would likely boost soybean prices and provide much-needed relief to U.S. farmers who've struggled with low demand and stiff competition from Brazil. A spike in Chinese buying would also help reduce stockpiles and stabilize farm incomes, particularly in key Midwestern states.
However, if China doesn't respond, the industry could face market volatility. Prices may drop again, and farmers could suffer another round of export losses. With the 90-day tariff truce set to expire, uncertainty remains high. If tariffs return, U.S. soybeans would become less competitive, further weakening the industry's global position.
In short, Trump's push offers hope, but without firm commitments from China, American farmers are still exposed to political risk and global supply chain pressures.