The season full of "what ifs" continues as the landscape of the NFC remains wide open after Week 15. The 6-8 49ers have less than a one percent chance to make the playoffs. Their performance on Thursday night is a big reason why. Let's look at some overreactions from Week 15.
The question that fans will wrestle with in the offseason is whether you pay Brock Purdy like an upper-echelon quarterback.
Is it fair to call the weather from Thursday night a playoff-like atmosphere? We saw rain come down against the Green Bay Packers at Levi's Stadium last year. In a game where the conditions were far from balmy, Purdy dropped back to throw 34 times. He completed 45 percent of his passes with a 4.6 yards per attempt.
Among qualifying quarterbacks in Week 15, Purdy finished with the third-lowest passer rating, completion percentage, and expected completion percentage and had the seventh-lowest EPA per dropback.
It was a struggle whether Purdy was under pressure or not. He finished with a 29 percent success rate and went 11-for-27 on all throws beyond the line of scrimmage.
Being on target has plagued Purdy all season. Per Sports Info Solutions, Purdy has the third-lowest on-target percentage in the NFL among passers who have at least 300 attempts in 2024. He's 1.8 percent in front of last place.
It's not an overreaction to come away thinking that Purdy isn't in the same class as Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, etc. Brock's never been that kind of quarterback.
Still, the question comes to the alternatives. Who do you pay? Where are the other quarterbacks falling from the franchise tree? There aren't any answers, so we'll see an extension that likely allows the 49ers a way out after a few seasons.
It's not an overreaction, but Purdy will still get paid.
The 49ers are unlikely to make the playoffs thanks to their early season struggles and blowing multiple double-digit leads. This is a team that has been dominant at home in recent years but is only 4-4 this year. San Francisco is 2-4 on the road, 1-4 in the division, 4-6 in the NFC, and -6 in point differential.
This is a team with a season-long winning streak that is capped at two, despite playing Sam Darnold and Jacoby Brissett sandwiched in between three divisional games.
With all that said, I'm still in the mindset that the 49ers are a team that nobody would want to play come playoff time and would go as far as to say they'd win at least one game. Of course, this is all moot, as the 49ers are unlikely to make the postseason.
But the defense we saw against the Rams was reminiscent of the best version we've seen from that unit during Kyle Shanahan's tenure.
Even when you include the late bomb on a coverage bust that led to a field goal, The Rams were significantly below average in EPA per play, success rate, first down percentage, and this was the case no matter the situation. Finally, the defense even got off the field on late downs. For the first time in a long time, the 49ers were the bullies.
after week 15, the 49ers are 2-5 in one-possession games. As we know, they could and should have the inverse record at 5-2. But undisciplined play and mistakes at the worst possible times have the 49ers in the situation where they currently sit.
To me, simulating the 49ers season ten times, we'd be talking about the NFC West divisional leader and why they are favorites to win the NFC once again. But in this simulation, the 49ers landed on the wrong side of the coin.