The Jets reportedly gave center Brad Lambert's representation the green light to find a trade partner this week. James Carey Lauder / Imagn Images
The Winnipeg Jets could try for years without ever repeating the wild nature of their news cycle this week.
Adam Lowry, the team captain, signed a five-year, $25 million contract extension. Connor Hellebuyck, the star goaltender, was injured for the first time in his career and is expected to miss four to six weeks after undergoing arthroscopic surgery. Carolina Hurricanes forward Nikolaj Ehlers made his return to Winnipeg on Friday and teed up Carolina's game-winning goal by exploiting an open seam in the Jets' penalty kill.
Oh, and Brad Lambert's trade request became a hot-button issue.
Are we about to find out who the Jets really are -- on and off the ice -- as adversity strikes? Let's start our tear through the Jets' biggest news items of the week by explaining what's happening with Lambert.
Frank Seravalli reported Thursday that the Jets gave Lambert's representation the green light to find a trade partner. The report caused quite a stir, understandably, given the 2022 first-round pick's status as one of Winnipeg's top prospects, and fans want to know what's really happening.
The first thing to understand is that Lambert's inclination to play elsewhere is not about a distaste for Winnipeg, the city or the organization. He recently scored his first NHL goal and has three points in 10 NHL games thus far in his career. There's no holdout, no refusal to sign a contract: He's playing through the second year of the three-year entry-level contract (after two ELC slide years) and reported to the Moose when assigned to the AHL. Lambert played for Manitoba against Chicago on Thursday night.
The second thing to understand is that Lambert's request is not new. Winnipeg has played a veteran-heavy roster since drafting Lambert and winning the President's Trophy last season, as Lambert struggled in the AHL. Given that he turned 21 last December and scored 35 points in 61 AHL games last season, it's hard to fault the Jets for committing to their veterans during such a successful season. He's turning 22 next month and watched as the Jets signed veteran forwards Gustav Nyquist, Tanner Pearson and Cole Koepke. The team then played fellow prospects Parker Ford in 11 games and Nikita Chibrikov in eight, compared to Lambert's four, so it's not hard to blame Lambert for feeling a little impatient.
The third key item is that general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff values Lambert. The Jets have been aware of Lambert's NHL ambitions for 18 months or more. They have no interest in trading him to acquiesce to his request. Winnipeg has a ton of leverage, with Lambert being exempt from waivers through the end of next season.
There is zero impetus for Winnipeg to trade him, unless Cheveldayoff believes the trade makes the Jets better. I think some level of trade talks has taken place over the past couple of seasons, but never to Cheveldayoff's satisfaction because Lambert remains with the Jets organization.
Lambert wants to play in the NHL and for the Jets if at all possible. They aren't ready to provide that opportunity, and there's merit in that, based on the team's "win now" goals and Lambert's performance thus far.
What happens next?
Lambert needs to tear the cover off the ball in the AHL. It's been two years since he was an All-Star in that league, and he struggled last season. Top-six forward prospects need to be able to drive offence in that league -- with or without a star-studded supporting cast -- and no NHL team is going to trade for him if they don't see quality performance.
Meanwhile, the Jets will continue to listen to offers. They're a team with playoff ambitions and plenty of veterans, even with Hellebuyck hurt. Lambert (and draft capital) could be a route to an impact player at the trade deadline. The Jets were in on Brock Nelson last season, who the New York Islanders ultimately traded for a package involving Calum Ritchie and a first-round pick. A trade like that could be a model for Winnipeg this year. Sticking with New York, the Islanders' acquisition of Bo Horvat for prospect Aatu Räty, Anthony Beauvillier and a first-round pick also seems comparable.
Another option would be to look for prospects in other organizations who might help the Jets further down the line, as Winnipeg did when acquiring Brayden Yager from Pittsburgh for Rutger McGroarty.
If no sensible offers come Winnipeg's way, nothing is stopping the Jets from holding on to Lambert until they feel he's ready for a full-time NHL job. He's not the first young player with the Jets or any club to want to play in the NHL so badly that his representation is willing to ask for a trade. Many of those players, including Logan Stanley, stay with their original club until they find a way to break through.
The Jets are the NHL's oldest team, according to this study, and the NHL's second-slowest team, per this collection of NHL Edge data. Ehlers' return to Canada Life Centre was met with cheers, a smattering of boos during a Hurricanes power play and a standing ovation after his tribute video.
It was also a reminder of Winnipeg's lack of footspeed. Ehlers isn't alone on the Hurricanes in that regard. In fact, Hurricanes forward Seth Jarvis has an even faster top speed and a similar number of speed bursts, according to NHL Edge data. Carolina's Andrei Svechnikov and Eric Robinson are close behind, while half the roster has a top speed of over 22 miles per hour this season. Morgan Barron and Koepke are the only Jets who hit those speeds regularly, and they're not nearly the same threat to score.
The Ehlers ship has long sailed. He is only an example. Carolina's two-goal second-period dominance of the Jets included a 2-0 lead in goals and a 9-4 lead in shots, highlighting Winnipeg's track meet disadvantage. The Jets could overcome many of those problems by making faster decisions with the puck. One more good defenceman -- a stopper who can also move the puck -- would make a world of difference to Winnipeg's team speed.
Luke Schenn struggled badly in the Jets' zone again, unable to execute his breakouts as fast as the Hurricanes could take his outlets away. Stanley struggled with him, making one first-period giveaway to Ehlers that harkened back to a joke Ehlers had made before the game.
"I think the first few shifts are gonna be, you know, just worry about passing to the right guy," he said.
The Jets' third pair used to crush its sheltered minutes. It was buried in its own zone Friday, badly outshot and outscored 1-0. Winnipeg reduced Schenn to two shifts in the third period (and Stanley to two), which coincided with the Jets' surge in transition offence.
Winnipeg's forwards can do a better job of puck management, but the difference between playing in front of D who make versus miss their breakout passes is the bigger issue.
This is how it's all supposed to fall apart, isn't it? The Jets, propped up by their Hart Trophy-winning goaltender, are supposed to crumble as their backup takes the reins? It's a school of thought you're familiar with, whether you subscribe to it or not.
Coach Scott Arniel emphasized after Friday's loss that Winnipeg's problems were not about its goaltender.
"We need to play better in front of him. A couple of mistakes we made are things that we need to clean up for him," Arniel said.
With the loss, Eric Comrie's record fell to 4-2-0 and his save percentage to .899 this season -- almost identical to his career .898. If the Jets keep giving up 29.8 shots per game, the difference between Comrie and Hellebuyck's career numbers adds up to 12 extra goals against Winnipeg during that time frame. That kind of goal differential is worth roughly two and a half wins. Call it a five- or six-point swing.
That seems like it could be the difference between Winnipeg making (or missing) the playoffs. The Jets are 12-8-0 and hold the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference by virtue of owning the games played tiebreaker over Chicago.
Is it that big of a deal? The Athletic's playoff probability model says no.
Winnipeg's playoff odds fall from 83 percent with Hellebuyck in net to closer to 75 percent with him missing the next six weeks. You may have noticed that hockey is played on the ice and not on a spreadsheet, though. The key interpretation to make is that the Jets' road is (obviously) harder without Hellebuyck, but Arniel's old-school wisdom of "We need to play better in front of him" carries truth.
Winnipeg's team play will have a much bigger impact on its fortunes than the four to six weeks of Hellebuyck's absence. It was something the team already needed to fix. The Jets' share of shots and scoring chances has improved in the past two weeks, but from awful to near 50 percent. They still need to make progress in this regard, regardless of the goaltender, to be a true contender this season.
Comrie is a pending unrestricted free agent who has a huge opportunity to demonstrate his importance to the organization. A strong spell in Hellebuyck's absence would go a long way towards creating a sense of urgency from the Jets. There may also be interest in attending to Cole Perfetti's restricted free agent contract. Neither are quite as pressing as Kyle Connor's or Lowry's were, nor are unrestricted free agent contracts for whichever of Nyquist, Pearson, Koepke, Stanley, Colin Miller and Schenn the Jets are interested in retaining.
Jonathan Toews is likely a special case. There's a good reason for everyone involved to stay patient, but I'd expect there to be interest later in the year, assuming all has gone well.
The Jets also have a collection of minor league free agents. Pending RFA Moose players include David Gustafsson, Jaret-Anderson Dolan, Tyrel Bauer and Isaac Poulter. Pending UFA Moose include Ville Heinola*, Kale Clague, Walker Duehr, Phillip Di Giuseppe, Samuel Fagemo* and Mason Shaw. Finally, the Jets still have Kristian Vesalainen's rights, but he will become a UFA next summer. (*Group VI UFAs)
If the Jets hit the accelerator on any of these deals, it will be Comrie or Perfetti, but I don't expect that to happen soon.