It's Sept. 10, the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Normally, there would be a tropical storm or hurricane swirling around - or at least the threat of one forming.
But the Atlantic Ocean is currently devoid of tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes - and on their website, the National Hurricane Center prominently displays a map of an empty basin that says "Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days."
This comes after a disturbance last week, which had high odds of developing near the Caribbean islands, disintegrated after choking on dry, dusty air from the Sahara and is no longer a threat.
And it's not just the Atlantic. The tropics across the Northern Hemisphere have experienced less than 60 percent of their normal activity so far this year. That's according to accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, an integrated metric of tropical cyclone winds and longevity.
So what's going on? Does it mean that hurricane season, which surged to life with Category 5 Erin last month, is fizzling out unexpectedly early?
Not so fast. But there is something unusual going on.
Subtropical oceans across the planet, including regions of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans, have surged to record levels of warmth, and that may be having the counterintuitive effect of contributing to fewer tropical storms.
During August, subtropical oceans across the globe averaged 74.4 degrees, tying the record mark for August set just one year ago.
On the other hand, tropical oceans, especially in the eastern and southern Atlantic, have cooled notably compared to last year's record warmth - part of the reason 2024's hurricane season was so busy.
Because the subtropics have warmed significantly and the tropics have cooled, there's less of a temperature difference, called a gradient, between the two regions. A weaker temperature gradient tends to lead to more stable, calmer atmospheric patterns in areas where storms typically form.
Hurricanes play an important role in transferring heat from the tropics toward the poles. When the temperature difference between these regions decreases, that role somewhat diminishes and there may be a reduced tendency for storms to form.
Also, a weather variable known as the atmospheric lapse rate - the rate at which air cools from the ground up through the atmosphere - has been weaker than normal across the Atlantic. A smaller lapse rate means rising air cools faster than its surroundings, so it can't keep rising, making it harder for clouds and storms to form.
Overall, this has meant that environmental conditions are less conducive to tropical storm development, with several meteorologists picking up on the trend.
"I think what it shows is we have to look beyond just [rising] sea surface temperatures when we consider the implications of a warming climate," said meteorologist Andy Hazelton.
In a warming world, scientific research has found declining trends in the frequency of tropical storms in some ocean basins. However, storms that do form may become stronger and produce more rain. The subtropical ocean warming trend may also allow tropical storms to form or persist farther away from the tropics.
As seasonal winds strengthen across Africa, dust and sand from the Sahara get swept high into the atmosphere and carried thousands of miles, often across the Atlantic Ocean. When this hot, dry air mixes into the circulation of a developing tropical storm, it can stunt growth by cutting off the storm's access to moisture.
This season, dusty air probably influenced the behavior of a few storms, although there has been less dust than normal.
Still, dust concentrations alone cannot fully explain the dearth of tropical disturbances.
It's important to remember that hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint. Months still remain before the season ends after Nov. 30.
Forecasters are closely watching a tropical cluster of clouds and thunderstorms that typically tracks around the planet every 30 to 60 days called the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
It's like an energy drink for storms, sparking conditions that are more conducive to their formation, such as rising air and towering thunderstorms, more moisture and spin in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
This storm spark plug is currently located in the Pacific Ocean but is predicted to reach the Atlantic in late September into October - potentially providing some of the season's most prime conditions for hurricane formation in a few weeks.
Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb said in a message that he thinks the period from late September through about early to mid-October is when hurricane-forming factors will intersect most comprehensively in the Atlantic, raising the risk of storms.
From late September into October, fewer storms emerge from Africa as the monsoon season there begins to wane.
Instead, hurricane tracks begin to favor the western part of the basin, such as the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, because it's the focal point of ocean heat - which is currently above-average.
In August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a La Niña watch. Cool waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean - a hallmark of La Niña - can reduce the level of clouds and thunderstorms there while enhancing it over the Atlantic.
This may mean that the bulk of this season's hurricane activity may occur late and linger longer.