(Source: DAT Solutions. Before COVID sent rates skyrocketing, this chart from 2010 to 2017 shows how the spot market used to move -- up and down with the seasons, but rarely above $2.00/mile. Dry van, reefer, and flatbed rates danced around breakeven territory for years. That's the world many truckers were used to -- tight margins, calculated runs, and no room for error. Today's downturn isn't new... it's a return to the kind of freight cycles that were normal before the pandemic-era highs gave everyone a taste of rare air.)
But what goes up too fast in trucking doesn't float. It crashes.
That wave of capacity didn't just include seasoned O/Os. Tens of thousands of new entrants flooded in, including non-domiciled CDL holders that many carriers brought on to save money or fill seats. According to FMCSA records and FreightWaves reporting, we've seen a significant spike in first-time motor carrier authorities and a massive influx of foreign-born CDL holders entering the market.
But more capacity doesn't mean more freight.
And by mid-2022, that freight wave began to ebb. Inventory piled up. Retail cooled. And those sky-high spot rates started their nosedive.
According to SONAR's National Truckload Index (NTI), rates dropped from well over $3.00/mile at the peak to under $2.30/mile by mid-2025. That's nearly a 25% decline, wiping out all pandemic-era gains -- while fuel and insurance costs stayed elevated.
(Source: SONAR Outbound Tender Volume Index. (OTVI.USA). This five-year look at the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) tells the story loud and clear -- freight demand has fallen off a cliff since the 2021 boom. Back then, tender volumes surged north of 15,000 as shippers scrambled to move product. Today, we're hovering under 10,000. For truckers, that means fewer loads to chase, more competition per load, and longer waits between runs. If it feels like you're working twice as hard for half the freight, this chart explains why.)
Let's break down what the data shows:
Pair that with rising truck repossessions, insurance hikes, and a jump in trucking bankruptcies (a 35% increase YoY in fleets shutting down), and you've got a perfect storm.
If it smells like a recession, runs like a recession, and bankrupts like a recession -- guess what?
You've heard this story before: freight cools, capacity shrinks, survivors get stronger. But this time, the playbook has a few new pages.
The recent Trump-era tariffs on foreign goods have created ripples that haven't fully hit inland lanes yet. Importers are delaying restocks, and container volumes at ports were up initially, but deceptive -- much of it is front-loaded inventory rushing to beat tariff deadlines. That means a pop in drayage and short-haul but a vacuum in midwestern and eastern long-haul freight two weeks later.
We're seeing a market shift where carriers, facing insurance pressure and driver churn, have leaned on foreign CDL holders, often with less oversight. FMCSA data confirms countless new CDLs issued to non-domiciled applicants between 2021-2024. Many entered fleets at scale -- driving wages down and pushing seasoned drivers off profitable lanes.
Back in 2019 or even 2015, if you lost a customer or a contract, you could hop on a load board and piece together a week. Not now. Spot market rates no longer offer shelter, and load-to-truck ratios have fallen by 30% YoY.
That means you can't out-hustle this market like you used to. The game's changed.
(Source: Equipment Finance News. Charge-offs in equipment financing -- often a signal of financial strain -- have been steadily climbing since mid-2022, peaking at 0.37% in June 2023. As more carriers walk away from truck notes or default on leases, this rising metric underscores just how deep the pain has spread in today's freight recession.)
One of the clearest signs of a freight recession? Bankruptcies. And while it's not as flashy as Celadon collapsing overnight, smaller fleets are dying off at a steady pace.
And for those still standing, it feels like you're making less but working harder -- because you are.
So what does this mean for you, the driver fueling up in Amarillo, staring at another sub-$2.00 offer?
It means this:
(Source: DAT Freight and Analytics, ACT Research. This chart shows the rollercoaster ride of spot market rates with fuel included over the last 15 years. The red line tells the real story -- what an owner-operator actually earns per mile before expenses. During the COVID boom, spot + fuel topped $3.25/mile, a record high that drove massive growth and fleet expansion. But look closer at the recent decline -- by early 2023, rates fell below $2.00/mile all-in, a level many carriers say doesn't cover costs.)
If you define it by rate erosion, carrier exits, imbalance of supply/demand, and operational pain -- it absolutely qualifies. This isn't a moment. It's a multi-year correction.
And when you add in:
...it may actually be deeper than 2008, especially for the small carriers who don't have megacarrier resources.
You've survived market swings before. But this one isn't just about weathering a storm. It's about rethinking how you operate.
The freight will return. Capacity will correct. But the ones who survive won't be the ones hauling the most miles -- they'll be the ones running smart, lean, and relationship based when needed. They'll be the ones who built customer relationships when everyone else was chasing spot market loads. They'll be the ones who adjusted instead of just enduring.
So if you're hurting right now, just know this:
You're not crazy. You're not alone. And if we face this with clarity -- hopefully -- we'll come out of it not just alive, but stronger.