Thanksgiving dinner is expected to cost more in 2025 as turkey prices surge and families tighten their budgets to manage higher grocery bills.
Wholesale frozen turkeys are expected to cost $1.32 per pound on average in November, up 40.4% from 94 cents in 2024, according to a September outlook from the US Department of Agriculture. The wholesale cost is what retailers pay before setting even higher prices for customers.
The increase comes as illnesses like highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and avian metapneumovirus (AMPV) rip through turkey flocks across the Midwest. The USDA said outbreaks in late 2024 and early 2025 wiped out hundreds of thousands of birds, including 400,000 in the Dakotas alone.
Since 2022, HPAI has affected 18.7 million turkeys, accounting for about 10% of all birds hit by the virus, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. That includes at least 2.2 million turkeys lost in 2025, fueled by massive September outbreaks detected in the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.
AMPV spread rapidly through turkey flocks in 2024, with cases reported in up to 80% of farms. While less deadly than HPAI, AMPV has reduced egg production among breeders, making it harder to replace lost birds and maintain their supply.
The USDA projects 195 million turkeys will be raised in 2025. That's down 3% from 2024 and the lowest total in four decades.
Purdue University market analysts expect the average retail price of a whole turkey to reach $2.05 per pound in November. That would be about 25% higher than the November 2024 retail price.
The analysts project that a 15-pound bird could cost roughly $31.
"While we are predicting higher turkey prices on average -- largely driven by the uptick in wholesale price -- there's typically a wide price range around that average," the analysts wrote on Wednesday, Oct. 29. "Part of this variation is driven by quality; for example, higher prices for organic or pasture-raised turkeys."
The higher turkey prices come as grocery shoppers already feel the strain.
Nearly half of US households said in September that groceries are harder to afford than in 2024, according to a Harris/Axios poll. Prices for staples like eggs, beef, and coffee have risen far faster than the overall inflation rate, pushing grocery costs up more than 30% since 2020.
Many low-income families are also dealing with uncertainty over Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits during the ongoing federal government shutdown. The Trump administration has agreed to only partial SNAP payments in November, and it's unclear when funds will reach the roughly 42 million Americans relying on the program.
To attract customers amid higher supermarket costs, some retailers are promising discounts. Aldi and Walmart have announced deals that claim to feed up to 10 people for about $40.
Purdue's analysts say the promotions create a significant range in frozen turkey prices.
"Grocery retailers are competing for customers, and, in addition to turkeys, they sell everything else that you might put in your pantry," the analysts said. "Therefore, some retailers offer significant discounts on turkeys to attract customers. For example, Walmart is currently selling whole turkeys for $0.98/lb., less than half of our predicted average price. Consumers with time to compare prices across retailers may find substantial savings this season."
According to the National Turkey Federation, Americans eat about 1.4 billion pounds of turkey on Thanksgiving, more than a quarter of the nation's total 2025 production.
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