In a new update on Sunday afternoon, Oct. 12, AccuWeather said the tropical wind-and-rainstorm pushing north from the Southeast will combine with persistent onshore flow.
This will produce major coastal flooding from North Carolina through the mid-Atlantic and into southern New England through Tuesday, Oct. 14.
"The tropical wind and rainstorm continues to gradually move up the East Coast," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said on Sunday. "Major coastal flooding is expected starting this afternoon from North Carolina through the mid-Atlantic.
"Persistent onshore winds will allow for major coastal flooding for multiple high tide cycles, unlike most storms where significant coastal flooding may only occur during one high tide cycle.
"The slow movement of this coastal storm will allow for multiple high tide cycles of flooding. Some water may be unable to drain between the high tide cycles leading to a compounding effect of the flooding."
Peak gusts of 40-60 mph are expected along and east of I-95 from eastern North Carolina to northern New Jersey, with some gusts up to 80 mph possible into parts of Connecticut, Massachusetts, southern Vermont and New Hampshire late Sunday into Monday, Oct. 13.
Scattered power outages and beach erosion are likely.
"With high pressure to the north and the coastal storm to the south, the winds will be funneled into the mid-Atlantic between these two weather features," DaSilva said. "It will be like wind getting funneled and accelerated between two buildings."
A general swath of 2-4 inches of rain is forecast from the Carolina coast to southeastern New Hampshire, with 1-2 inches inland toward the Interstate 95 corridor and into the lower Hudson Valley.
Parts of the central North and South Carolina coast that have already picked up 2-5 inches could finish with 6-8 inches. While the rain may chip away at drought, street flooding and poor drainage issues are likely.
Storm surge of 1-3 feet is expected from coastal North Carolina to the southern New England coastline, with locally higher surge possible from Virginia Beach to Toms River, New Jersey.
Bays and sounds facing east are most at risk as persistent easterly winds funnel water ashore for several tide cycles, raising the threat of significant inundation and property damage.
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