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The newest NAEP results landed this week - with a thud.
Twelfth-grade reading proficiency fell to 35% and math to 22%; lows not seen in decades. I covered one eye as I checked eighth-grade science numbers, having already heard it was bad - 31%. It's the continuation of a long slide that began before COVID and deepened after it, with the steepest drops concentrated among struggling students. The matter is nationwide, bipartisan, and urgent. As Jeanne Allen of the Center for Education Reform put it in response to the results: "We must rebuild American education from the ground up."
A potentially overlooked tool for this rebuilding may lie in one of the longest-running battles in American education: the reading wars. For decades, schools were divided between two philosophies - one that asked children to decode words through systematic phonics instruction, and another that encouraged them to rely on pictures, context clues, and guessing strategies known as "three-cueing." The evidence has been clear for years: students taught with explicit phonics become stronger, more confident readers. Students who are taught to guess will often stall, especially those without a high degree of literacy support at home.
The latest NAEP results highlight a crisis while also sharpening the case for what's become known as the "science of reading". The science of reading is based on a body of research on how children learn to read, codified by the National Reading Panel in 2000. Its recommendations - phonemic awareness, phonics, fluency, vocabulary, and comprehension - sound fairly obvious, but they have only recently gained actual traction in classrooms and policy.
The state of Mississippi was an early adopter, passing its Literacy-Based Promotion Act in 2013 and investing in literacy coaches, frequent screening, and third-grade retention policies. The state became known for the "Mississippi Miracle" after its students' NAEP scores leapt upward, particularly among Black and low-income children. "Mississippi fourth graders aren't just one of the best in reading and math gains -- they're the best in the nation," Governor Tate Reeves said in 2022. "It's undeniable that something special is happening in classrooms all across our state."
But, behind the curtain, there was a well-executed, well-researched methodology powering the magic. Education Week reported that Mississippi spent about $15 million annually on literacy reforms, with most of that funding directed to coaches and interventions that put the science of reading into daily practice. Andrew Ho, who served on the NAEP governing board, noted there was no evidence Mississippi's results were an illusion: "I don't see any smoking guns or red flags that make me say that they're gaming NAEP."
Other states are taking note, and the progress is bipartisan. Wisconsin passed Act 20 in 2023, requiring phonics-based instruction in early grades, banning three-cueing, and mandating interventions for struggling readers. Arkansas passed a sweeping "Literacy, Empowerment, Accountability, Readiness, Networking, and School Safety" (LEARNS) Act that embeds the science of reading in every K-3 classroom. Colorado has also toughened its literacy requirements, banning three-cueing and investing in teacher training. Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, and New York are all moving in similar directions. Many states have declared it a priority over the next several years - like my home state of Michigan.
One might argue that any delay here is letting valuable learning time slip through our collective fingers - and that this week's NAEP results make the stakes seem too high for such delay. NAEP declines were steepest among students in the bottom quartile academically! Those students cannot make up ground by guessing words from a picture; they need systematic instruction in how letters and sounds work together, delivered consistently and early. Research shows that when kids fail to read proficiently by the end of third grade, they are four times more likely to drop out of high school. And when fewer than four in ten seniors can read proficiently, as NAEP now shows, the consequences ripple into the workforce and national well-being and economy. As Allen warned, "You cannot lead in AI, aviation, or semiconductor manufacturing if your graduates can't pass the nation's benchmark test."
My favorite part: the reforms that work are not extravagant or costly. Compared to the billions spent annually on education technology or infrastructure, Mississippi's literacy budget was relatively modest. Investing a few million dollars for reading coaches and evidence-based teacher training delivered more measurable gains than initiatives costing multiples more. By my analysis, that makes the science of reading not only effective, but possibly one of the most affordable large-scale reforms available - a rare policy that could both save money and improve outcomes for individuals and something as macro as our national GDP.
NAEP is a sobering snapshot of where we are. But Mississippi, Wisconsin, and dozens of other states show us where we could go from here.