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Hamilton transit officials are planning for a possible 2032 opening date for long-delayed light rail transit through the lower city.
But that prospective LRT in-service date is more of an aspiration than a prediction, stress city officials -- and by no means guaranteed.
"It's theoretical," said acting public works general manager Jackie Kennedy. "We needed a date to work toward ... we don't know any more (about timelines) than has been made public so far."
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Provincial transit agency Metrolinx is in charge of the LRT project -- and it has repeatedly declined to offer a public construction timeline, let alone an opening date estimate, before contractors are hired to design and build the 14-kilometre line for rapid transit.
Bidding for a first phase of project construction is only now underway. Via email, the agency said "final timelines" will be determined by a second round of procurement for rail infrastructure that has yet to begin.
Regardless, 2032 appears as a potential go-live date for LRT in the city's newly released proposal for an overhaul of bus routes that is planned in part to prepare for -- and better connect to -- the LRT.
That makeover of Hamilton's transit map, dubbed HSR Next, is now posted online and will be debated by councillors at a Monday meeting.
The ambitious plan outlines recommended new transit hubs, HSR hiring and bus route changes starting next year and continuing through 2032 -- a seven-year effort requiring tens of millions of capital dollars, more than 400 new hires and a cumulative potential tax levy impact of around 4.5 per cent.
The plan also spells out recommended changes in 2032 -- such as phasing out B-Line bus service, for example -- if the 17-stop LRT line opens that year on the busy east-west corridor between McMaster University and Eastgate Square. (It also offers a "no LRT" plan for that year if the rail project is not yet done.)
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That aspirational date is the first hint offered to the public in years about when LRT could actually be up and running.
Once upon a time, the long-discussed LRT was expected to take about six years to build and open in 2024.
But that first project version was controversially cancelled by the province in 2019 before being resurrected with $3.4 billion in joint Ontario-federal funding during the pandemic.
The province announced a procurement process to seek bidders on a first phase of construction in May -- a full decade after LRT was first funded.
The original plan for light rail transit featured periodic project timeline updates to the public through city council, but that practice has not resumed since LRT 2.0 was announced in 2021.
Metrolinx did present a partial project timeline to a regional construction association in 2022 that suggested contract bidding was imminent, but procurement was ultimately delayed until this year.
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The agency has said it plans to build LRT in Hamilton in two phases: a contract to dig up the route, relocate utilities and build road infrastructure, followed by a second contract to handle transit infrastructure like rails and trains. Construction on that first phase could still be two years away.
But Metrolinx, which has faced criticism for not meeting project deadlines in high-profile GTA transit projects, has so far not been willing to provide public construction timelines or opening date estimates for Hamilton.
So is it reasonable to hope we could step foot on a LRT car on King Street in 2032?
Transit advocate Karl Andrus remains optimistic -- although he "wouldn't be willing to bet" on a given date.
Andrus, who is following the project closely as a representative of the Hamilton Community Benefits Network, noted the local LRT has some built-in advantages over notoriously delayed Toronto projects like the Eglinton Crosstown -- including "all surface rail," rather than a mix of on-road tracks and expensive tunnels.
"So maybe there is a better chance that it will be delivered on time," he said. "But whether it is or not, the city has an obligation to prepare and grow (the bus system), because it's not all about LRT. There is an entire (citywide) network that needs to be built out."
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Project critics have also questioned whether there is enough dedicated funding to build the line as planned, given how transit construction costs have skyrocketed since the pandemic.
Provincial officials have thus far refused to comment on whether the project budget is sufficient, citing a need to protect the competitive bidding process.
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