"The current unrest at Mount Spurr indicates that new magma has intruded into the Earth's crust beneath the volcano and that the probability of an eruption has increased," the AVO statement said. "It is likely that magma has been accumulating beneath Mount Spurr's summit for some months. The recent gas data suggest that a new pathway towards the Crater Peak vent has opened and that fresh magma may rise and erupt there."
Volcanologists said there will likely be warning signs before an eruption, including increased gas, seismic, and heat activity. However, they said it could also erupt without any warning.
According to an earlier statement from AVO, scientists in Alaska first noticed volcanic unrest at Mount Spurr in April 2024. They detected an unexpected number of earthquakes beneath the volcano, averaging 30 per week between April and October. From early October to early February, that number increased to 125 per week but has since declined to about 100 per week.
The statement said during flights over the volcano on March 7 and 11, volcanologists "measured significantly elevated volcanic gas emissions."
Scientists also measured higher than usual sulfur dioxide emissions from the summit and carbon dioxide from both the summit and Crater Peak, a volcanic vent two miles from Mount Spurr's summit. That peak now features active gas vents.
Volcanologists believe the most likely event will be an explosive eruption, or eruptions, from the Crater Peak vent, which erupted in 1953 and 1992. Scientists believe that an eruption in Mount Spurr would mirror those occurrences.
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Mount Spurr last erupted from its summit thousands of years ago.
"At the current level of unrest, we plan to conduct routine overflights to measure gas emissions, evaluate surface changes, and measure ground surface temperatures," the AVO said.