By early morning, the National Hurricane Center had located Melissa about 305 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. Winds were howling near 50 mph, with stronger gusts swirling in the mix. The storm's drifting west-northwest for now, but it is expected to slow down and bend north later this week - a move that could push heavy weather right into Jamaica and Haiti's southwest coast by Thursday or Friday.
The water below is warm - prime fuel for a growing storm. "Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday," forecasters warned in their latest update.
Meteorologists told USA Today the storm could unload 5 to 10 inches of rain across southern Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Jamaica through Saturday. Some places might see even more if the system stalls. The National Hurricane Center warned of "significant flash flooding and landslides," especially in areas where the ground is already soaked or the slopes are steep.
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Northern Haiti, the northern Dominican Republic, and parts of western Jamaica could get two to four inches. Aruba and Puerto Rico will probably just catch the edge of it, with lighter rain, around an inch or two. Swells are also expected to build up around Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba in the next couple of days, stirring up rough surf and dangerous rip currents.
Hurricanes feed off hot water. When ocean temperatures climb above 80°F, clusters of thunderstorms start to spin together, feeding off that energy. Once winds hit 39 mph, it's called a tropical storm; at 74 mph, it is a hurricane.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is urging people to get ready now, not when the wind is already up. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early," the agency says. That means go over your flood coverage, prep your home, and know your evacuation route. Trim branches, clear gutters, get the shutters ready - all the basic stuff that makes a big difference later.
Melissa's not a hurricane yet, but it is showing every sign that it is heading there. With ocean temperatures high and the atmosphere feeding it energy, the next few days will be critical. Folks across the Caribbean are being told to keep a close eye - and keep their guard up.
Melissa is located south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
Forecasters say it could reach hurricane strength by Thursday.
Southern Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Jamaica face the heaviest rainfall.
Up to 10 inches in some areas, with risks of flash flooding and landslides.