2025 was the year of AI hype. 2026 will be the year of AI accountability.
I've spent the past few years building AI systems at BrainBlend AI, watching the gap between what gets promised in demos and what actually works in production grow wider by the month. After deep-diving into research from Stanford HAI, MIT, Gartner, Sequoia Capital, and countless Reddit threads from actual practitioners, one thing is clear: 2026 is when the bill comes due.
The question is no longer "Can AI do this?" It's "How well, at what cost, and for whom?"
Here are 10 predictions for what will actually happen in AI next year, based on hard data, expert analysis, and the uncomfortable truths the marketing materials won't tell you.
1. The AI Bubble Will Start Deflating, Not Popping
Let's start with the elephant in the room.
Sequoia Capital did the math, and it's brutal: AI companies need approximately $600 billion in annual revenue to justify current infrastructure spending. Actual AI revenue? About $100 billion. That's a 6x gap between what's being invested and what's being earned.
OpenAI projects $20 billion in revenue by end of 2025, but they're also projecting $12 billion in losses. Their path to profitability? 2029 or 2030, according to financial documents reviewed by Fortune.
Michael Burry (the investor who predicted the 2008 crash) is now betting against AI, with put options on Palantir and Nvidia. His thesis: the boom is driven by "supply-side gluttony" and questionable accounting. He calls Nvidia the "Cisco of this era," and Cisco fell 80%+ after the dot-com peak.
Even industry insiders are getting nervous. Lyft CEO David Risher said it plainly: "Let's be clear, we are absolutely in a financial bubble."
But here's the nuance: Stanford HAI experts predict the bubble won't burst dramatically. Instead, it will "stop getting much bigger." Think slow deflation, not spectacular pop. The money will tighten, the startups will...